[ExI] Whatever happened to peak oil by 2020?

[Eugen Leitl]

On Mon, Apr 29, 2013 at 08:28:13AM -0400, Pete McAlpine wrote:
> Nonsense!  The drill rate is at least partially determined by government
> dictat!  Absurd to deny it!

Aaaand with this you demonstrate absolutely no knowledge whatsoever
about practical fracking (or email netiquette, for that matter) and
I'm out of this thread.
 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
> [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Eugen Leitl
> Sent: Monday, April 29, 2013 1:18 AM
> To: ExI chat list
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Whatever happened to peak oil by 2020?
> 
> On Sun, Apr 28, 2013 at 05:15:05PM -0400, Peter E McAlpine wrote:
> > Forget "peak oil" until all government hindrance of exploration and 
> > drilling is ended.
> 
> Peak oil was 2006. Peak total fossil and nuclear fuel and is 2020.
> Look at the well drill rate and well decay rate for unconventional oil and
> gas (~40%/year), look at the rising costs, dropping EROEI and draw your own
> conclusions.
> 
> Hint: "government hindrance" has zero squat to do with why this thing will
> be over shortly. If there is no plan B I'm afraid you'll be hurting plenty,
> soon.
>  
> >  
> > 
> > From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
> > [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of John 
> > Clark
> > Sent: Sunday, April 28, 2013 1:11 PM
> > To: ExI chat list
> > Subject: [ExI] Whatever happened to peak oil by 2020?
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > Because of improvements in technology, in particular hydraulic 
> > fracturing that gets light oil and gas from shale, the Paris based 
> > International Energy Agency says:
> > 
> > "By around 2020, the United States is projected to become the largest 
> > global oil producer overtaking Saudi Arabia [...] The result is a 
> > continued fall in US oil imports, to the extent that North America 
> > becomes a net oil exporter around 2030.  [...] The United States, 
> > which currently imports around 20% of its total energy needs, becomes 
> > all but self-sufficient in net terms - a dramatic reversal of the 
> > trend seen in most other energy- importing countries."
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > For more see:
> > 
> > http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/English.p
> > df
> > 
> >   John K Clark
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 
> 
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> 
> --
> Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
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Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
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