[ExI] The Pace of Technology Adoption is Speeding Up

[Anders Sandberg]

On 2013-12-02 10:12, BillK wrote:
> That's good. It means I can easily miss whole generations of the 
> latest fads. I don't have to buy this year's new thing and have all 
> the hassle of moving stuff and learning new routines. Because next 
> year's fad will be even 'better'.

The utility of new things is likely going up, so waiting gives you 
something better. But you also suffer the cost of not having the good 
gadget. If you discount the future at a rate r, the value now of getting 
the gadget in t years is exp(-rt)*U. If U is growing exponentially at 
the rate s, then the utility behaves exp(-(r-s)t) - is s>r you should 
never get the device, since it will always be more awesome if you wait.

So either the increasing pace of tech adaptation is a sign that s is 
*decreasing* (doom! stagnation!) or a sign that people are getting 
gadgets irrationally. I know what I would bet on.

There is an extra factor, and that is network effects. Apple Newton 
users were few and far between, so the cost was high and there was 
little software. Ipads reached a critical threshold and got lots of 
customers, lots of software, lots of technology advance. Same thing for 
many gadgets: they become more useful if more people use them.

Now, given the diffusion curves (are those the same ones NYT always use? 
Based on the old 1994 Forbes diagram?) you can see that the value of new 
tech likely is multiplied by a sigmoid curve: getting it early means few 
network effects and that it is not going to have a great utility. 
Another reason to wait. But if people are rushing through the diffusion 
process faster, that means you don't have to wait as long.


I recently got a new Samsung S4zoom smartphone to replace my iPhone 3. 
This is my fourth cellphone I have owned - I only change when the old 
one actually starts impairing my functionality, and then I jump two or 
three tech generations at a time. This way I do not have to pay the cost 
of learning new systems very often.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University