[ExI] The Pace of Technology Adoption is Speeding Up

[BillK]

On Mon, Dec 2, 2013 at 10:35 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> The utility of new things is likely going up, so waiting gives you something
> better. But you also suffer the cost of not having the good gadget. If you
> discount the future at a rate r, the value now of getting the gadget in t
> years is exp(-rt)*U. If U is growing exponentially at the rate s, then the
> utility behaves exp(-(r-s)t) - is s>r you should never get the device, since
> it will always be more awesome if you wait.
>
> So either the increasing pace of tech adaptation is a sign that s is
> *decreasing* (doom! stagnation!) or a sign that people are getting gadgets
> irrationally. I know what I would bet on.
>

I would add in a utility function for the value of your own time.

I find even the old land-line phones irritating, because the ring says
'Stop doing whatever it is you're working on and talk to me - My call
is more important!'.
(That's why I find email far more user-friendly - You read it when convenient).

When mobile phones arrived, this interference stepped up
exponentially. I found I was expected to be on-call for instant
response by employers, friends, relatives, salesmen, etc. Even
switching your phone off didn't work, because you knew all these
people were trying to contact you, and you were made to feel guilty
for not responding.

It might give you both a feeling of togetherness to know that Bob has
made a bacon sandwich for breakfast and to give him a witty response,
but continual status updates mean little else gets done.

A GP once said that one reason for the higher suicide rate among
doctors was the feeling of a wall of humanity pressing against his
office door, demanding attention. Your personal time is valuable!


BillK