[ExI] Wind, solar could provide 99.9% of ALL POWER by 2030

[Eugen Leitl]

On Sat, Jan 12, 2013 at 09:38:07PM +0100, Tomasz Rola wrote:

> The story, after some additional poking, seems far from complete - in its 
> current form, at least. It may hint that Germany had hit some kind of 
> technological roadblock, which may have something to do with storing 

The roadblock is mostly political. It doesn't matter, as the prices
are speaking quite loudly, and people are quite fed up with the 
situation.

Expect more guerilla style photovoltaics, and advent of micro-
and nanogrids.

> excess energy from green in power grid (which in this use is supposed to 
> act as huge capacitor).

You don't need storage until some quite ridiculous fraction of 
total contribution (Germany had 21.9% renewable of total electricity 
in 2012, after 20.3% in 2011 and 16.4% in 2010). Ordinarily, 25% would have
been expected, but wind was anomalously low in December.

Total demand declined 1.4%, and net export was highest ever with
23 TWh.
 
> There is also the related political problem - like a possible German 
> dependency on Russian energy and raw materials exports. This includes not 

Monseigneur Sabatier would like to have a word with господин Путин.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabatier_reaction

Energy independency is quite feasible for high-density industrial
nations. The math does check out.

> only oil/gas but maybe a coal, too. And this maybe links to the fact that 

Very little was due to increase in coal. It seems that natural
gas turbine plants will be subsidized in future, as peak plants are
not cost effective if they only have to run a couple weeks/year.

> from what I have heard once, Soviets liked to finance green parties. They 

Pics, or it didn't happen.

> really liked this (but I guess if Soviets had ever won, greens would have 

One evil empire down, one's still to go. And just what are we gonna
do after? Pax americana is drawing to an end. Things do look murky 
and (a)murrkier.

> been among the first to work in Siberia, this is how stuff works). And 

Siberia is busily eating itself. Russian Far East is pretty much now
Chinese, anyway.

> perhaps it also boils down to the fact that in mind of typical Westerner, 
> there is no idea of Russians cutting the supply off and thus forcing any 
> kind of subservience. Like they currently try (with some success, perhaps) 
> on their former subjects, Ukraine and Belarus. From what I heard, a 

What do you do with a maliciously unreliable supplier? Why, you bypass
him.

> typical Westerner thinks more like "I have the money, I want to pay, so I 

Somebody fetch me a typical Westerner.

> will buy whatever I need". But when someone controls all the shops in the 
> town, he also controls the town, whether he says so loudly or not. And if 
> he prefers to not sell to you, then your money have no value at all. In 
> such case, what else besides money can you offer? Assume for a while that 
> you cannot leave the town and police as well as magistrate are owned too.

It seems that the tables are quite inverted, here.
 
> Anyway. Politics is a swamp. And getting real news is hard. So the above 
> is just a memory dump, not opinion.