[ExI] [mta] Re: Bitcion Moore's Law?

[Anders Sandberg]

On 2013-07-17 10:54, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> On Mon, Jul 15, 2013 at 02:14:07PM -0600, Brent Allsop wrote:
>
>> Moore's law is simply a small and specific example of the more general
> Moore's law is over. Financial scaling ceiling is here, physical
> is a couple of nodes away.

I think you both are wrong, at least in general terms. What is driving 
the improvement of many technologies is Wrightean learning and massive 
expansion of uses as the unit price goes down:
http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0052669
If there is no interest in a technology, it is not going to go 
Moore/accelerating returns (and surprisingly many techs like capability 
based security are stuck here). Physical limitations are surprisingly 
weak influences on price, since price is more about what people pay 
rather than anything objective - and often later versions of the tech 
are fundamentally something different from the earlier versions of the 
"same" tech (candles vs. gaslights vs. incandescent lightbulbs vs. LEDs 
- same goal, but very different ways of achieving it, and with very 
different ultimate physical constraints)

The scaling ceiling in economy is likely set by how well and large we 
can coordinate capital and groups of people. This is something that 
seems to improve over time, and I suspect it does in a multiplicative 
fashion.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University