[ExI] [mta] Re: Bitcion Moore's Law?

[Eugen Leitl]

On Mon, Jul 15, 2013 at 02:14:07PM -0600, Brent Allsop wrote:

> Moore's law is simply a small and specific example of the more general

Moore's law is over. Financial scaling ceiling is here, physical
is a couple of nodes away. 

> "Kurzweel's law of Accelerating Returns".   Simple exponential growth is

Which is not much of a law, and all stolen from Moravec.

> something like rabbits reproducing in an open system and is very
> predictable and explainable in simplistic ways.  In an open system, the
> only effect is simply the number of rabbits.  While general accelerating
> return laws also behave exponentially, it is for very different
> inexplicable reasons, and happens within extremely complex systems and
> interactions of huge numbers of otherwise unpredictable and noisy effects.
> All the cyclical noise, when examined closely, look important.  But when
> you stand back, they all become insignificant, compared to the
> exponentially accelerating growth and returns of the overall system.
> Complex things like economic growth, evolutionary growth, growth in the
> number of transistors on a chip, and so on are all examples of not just
> simple exponential growth, but accelerating return laws which can't be
> simply explained.
> 
> Since all economies grow according to the complex accelerating return laws,
> any fixed currencies being used in those accelerating growing systems, must
> corresponding grow according to the same complex laws of accelerating
> returns.  Hence why the emerging expert consensus is now predicting Bitcion
> valuations,  must also grow  exponentially, along with these accelerating
> return like laws, and that all other effects on the price will simply
> become irrelevant noise, in the long term.