[ExI] [mta] Re: Bitcion Moore's Law?
brent.allsop at canonizer.com
Sun Jul 21 16:34:25 UTC 2013
On 7/18/2013 9:49 AM, James Carroll wrote:
> On Wed, Jul 17, 2013 at 8:50 PM, Brent Allsop
> <brent.allsop at canonizer.com <mailto:brent.allsop at canonizer.com>> wrote:
> I do have another question. Would all you guys consider .00001% /
> year growth, exponential growth? It seems like most of our
> disagreement is just about how much exponential growth there is.
> And even the graph from 1900, would look very linear (as you seem
> to think it is) with .00001% growth, right?
> Any "% growth" is exponential growth. In the short term, exponential
> growth can look linear. However, there is no reason to suppose that it
> isn't linear without more data.
Yes, but one can also be just as theoretically justified in arguing what
appears to be linear could turn out to be exponential. Long term, or
within 100 years, if not way sooner, certainly we'll be mining huge sums
of Gold from Asteroids, if not finding many more sources of Gold, having
robots mine more gold than we could ever need, and so on.
> There is no reason to apriori suppose that every linear trend is
> actually an exponential trend with a doubling rate that is so far out
> that you can't see it yet.
Now we're getting down to the nuts and bolts of the argument. How far
out IS the doubling rate for Bitcoins? Historically, Bitcoin valuations
have been growing so fast, it's much better to talk about times for 10
times increases, not just doubling times. As the historical graph
shows, the first 5 order of magnitude increases took less than 6 months,
and happened unbelievable regularly.
Only the most recent 10 times increase, took less than 2 years. That's a
doubling rate of about 4 months, or 300% / year, the most aggressive
supporters in the camp are predicting this rate will continue, in a
Moore's law like way, at least until we reach a $1000/BTC valuation.
The more conservative in the camp, are predicting a more conservative
100% / year or doubling once a year rate, putting the first $1000/BTC
valuation towards the end of 2016.
So, if either You, Gordon, or anyone disagree, what are you saying, and
how many of you agree, compared to the emerging expert consensus?
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