[ExI] Fwd: Re: [mta] Re: Bitcion Moore's Law?

[Brent Allsop]

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: 	Re: [mta] Re: [ExI] Bitcion Moore's Law?
Date: 	Wed, 17 Jul 2013 20:50:45 -0600
From: 	Brent Allsop <brent.allsop at canonizer.com>
Reply-To: 	brent.allsop at canonizer.com
Organization: 	Canonizer LLC
To: 	transfigurism at googlegroups.com




Hi Folks,

OK, It looks like there is a clear expert consensus that I trust here.  
I guess I was making too much of an assumption about how fast the 
production of Gold was.  I need to rethink my thinking thanks to all 
your help.

I do have another question.  Would all you guys consider .00001% / year 
growth, exponential growth?  It seems like most of our disagreement is 
just about how much exponential growth there is.  And even the graph 
from 1900, would look very linear (as you seem to think it is) with 
.00001% growth, right?

So, the real question for you all still is, do you think the Value of 
Bitcoin, will grow in a way at least as "Moore's Law" like as the growth 
of integrated circuits have been, since Moore's prediction, as is being 
predicted by the emerging expert consensus here?:

http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2

And if not, do you think it will be less growth, more growth, or just 
not as (moore's law like) linear (on a logarithmic graph) as it has in 
the past?  And if so, why?

Brent Allsop




On 7/16/2013 9:20 AM, James Carroll wrote:
> On Tue, Jul 16, 2013 at 1:45 AM, Carl Youngblood <carl at youngbloods.org 
> <mailto:carl at youngbloods.org>> wrote:
>
>     Brent, those charts of gold mining look much more linear than
>     exponential. Notice that the Y-axis is climbing linearly. It would
>     need to be on a logarithmic scale if gold mining growth were
>     exponential.
>
>
>
>
> I agree with Carl Brent. While Gordon's graph doesn't go back far 
> enough to mean much, your graph very clearly indicates linear growth 
> over the last 100 years, with a potential slowdown at the end (it's 
> too hard to tell if that is noise, or real data there at the end).
>
> If there really is exponential growth in supply going on here, I don't 
> see it from these graphs at all. It may show up as you claim, if you 
> go further back in time. But it might not too, without the data, that 
> is simply wild speculation. For now, the only data I have seen 
> indicates linear growth.
>
> Furthermore, the potential slowdown indicated by your graph happened 
> right when wild panic over hypterinflation created a gold price 
> bubble, that is destined to pop (it is in the process of popping now 
> actually). If staggeringly and artificially high gold prices couldn't 
> even keep linear gold production growth going, I seriously doubt that 
> there really is an exponential trend buried underneath this.
>
> James
>
> -- 
> Web: http://james.jlcarroll.net
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