[ExI] list test

BillK pharos at gmail.com
Sun Jul 28 08:45:54 UTC 2013


On Sun, Jul 28, 2013 at 7:33 AM, Anders Sandberg  wrote:
> Email lists need a critical mass: if you see an email you might respond with
> some probability p, but without email you are unlikely to remember the list
> (post probability q << p). So the number of posts next day from N people
> will be
> posts = N[p(1-(1-p)^N) + q(1-p)^N]
>
> If this is larger than one, then the day after that there will be more
> posts, and so on, and the list shifts into high activity mode (I ignore the
> ceiling effect, where too high post rates makes people post less since they
> cannot keep up; feel free to extend the model). This transition happens when
> N becomes large enough (about N>1/p): you need enough posters for a given p
> to maintain reliable activity. If N and p decreases (holidays) the list can
> shift to a low state. q is what ensures there will be occasional revivals
> when things have fallen silent: Andrew's post is a fine example of a q-type
> post.
>

Yes, but.......

In this case the extropy.org registration expired on 21 July 2013
causing extropy.org and their lists to go dead.

The registration was renewed on 27 July 2013 and life restarted.

I am surprised how often this happens to internet companies, even big
companies like Microsoft.
Makes one think that there must be a better system just waiting to be
implemented.


BillK



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