[ExI] list test
Anders Sandberg
anders at aleph.se
Mon Jul 29 12:50:43 UTC 2013
On 2013-07-28 08:33, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> Email lists need a critical mass: if you see an email you might respond
> with some probability p, but without email you are unlikely to remember
> the list (post probability q << p). So the number of posts next day from
> N people will be
> posts = N[p(1-(1-p)^N) + q(1-p)^N]
A more full writeup, now with Markov chains, can be found at
http://www.aleph.se/andart/archives/2013/07/summer_silence.html
--
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford University
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