[ExI] [mta] Long Term Bitcoin Catastrophe?

Brent Allsop brent.allsop at canonizer.com
Thu Jun 20 03:47:01 UTC 2013

Not just Paypal.  Visa, Mastercard, Amex, Discover, all near $100 
billion capitalization companies, all built on their ability to muscle 
their way into steeling 3% of every effing transaction in the world.

Making money by shorting MasterCard International because of Bitcoin?


So, what's your current thinking about what a Bisection will be worth in 
1 year, and long term.  How high could they go?  Anywhere near 1 Satoshi 
= $1?  At that value all of them would start to be close to all the real 
estate in all the world, at today's prices.

Brent Allsop

On 6/19/2013 3:15 PM, sparrohawc at gmail.com wrote:
> Alright, I'm late to the party, but being a fan of Bitcoin I have a 
> few things to add.
> Bitcoin will settle down as they are disseminated more widely. The 
> market suffers when the assets are held in few hands, because it's 
> easier for it to flow one way or the other - and thus easier for the 
> value to shift quickly.  The recent booms and busts are drastically 
> less pronounced than they used to be.  I hope this is a trend that 
> continues, because it will encourage the use of bitcoins as a payment 
> method instead of just a store of value that is likely to give good 
> returns - and BTC as a payment method is, in my opinion, the best use 
> of bitcoins.  Having a single authority for online payments (see: 
> Paypal) is counter-productive, as the opportunity for the authority to 
> exploit its position increases with the number of people using it.
> Paypal is already practically a card-carrying villain if you happen to 
> be in the business of selling things.  It's far too easy to get bit by 
> them, and the response is usually a shrug followed by a "We already 
> have all your money" and "Who else are you going to go with?"  
> Frankly, anything that can take them, and their ilk, down a couple 
> pegs, is alright by me.
> The thing people keep failing to realize is that the creation of 
> Bitcoins is the creation of a commodity, not a Ponzi scheme.  It's 
> only an investment in the sense that you are buying something that may 
> increase in value in the future; it is in no way guaranteed, and the 
> boom-and-busts are proof of that to anyone with a pair of eyes.  If 
> you go into it expecting to see nothing but a climb in value, you're 
> exceptionally naive.  I hope we'll see $1K/BTC in the future, but I'll 
> admit that's just a wish born of greed.  In reality, the only way 
> that's going to happen is if people *use* bitcoins.  With a Ponzi 
> scheme, you're being told up-front that you should expect X amount of 
> return.  On top of that, the only use of a Ponzi is to get money 
> back.  That is far from the only use for bitcoins.
> I'll reiterate: I only care about Bitcoins climbing in price because I 
> happen to have a few.  Wholly separate from that is the hope that 
> Bitcoins are USED, and used WIDELY, because I see them as a superior 
> method of online payment.
> On Saturday, June 1, 2013 12:43:09 PM UTC-7, Brent.Allsop wrote:
>     Future Theoreticians,
>     Multiple thoughts have been percolating in my mind that has
>     further falsified my fears of a Bitcoin Deflationary Catastrophe. 
>     Help me see if I'm making any mistakes with this line of reasoning.
>     Currently, economies have a general instability in them, causing
>     destructive boom and bust cycles.  During the boom, everyone is
>     spending all their cash, to get into the stock market.  This tends
>     to cause currency to become worth less, or inflation, since
>     everybody is getting rid of it, to purchase stocks.  But when the
>     herd goes to far in this direction it creates a bubble.  When a
>     pull back starts the 'bubble' pops.  This is compounded as people
>     want to sell stocks (or not buy them), but instead put the capital
>     into something like Cash. reversing everything in a compounding
>     the problem unstable way.
>     All this causes people to reduce spending and investing, which
>     causes jobs to be lost, real estate values, where most wealth is,
>     crash, the stock market crashes, and governments attempt to
>     counteract this cycle buy pumping more money into the system. 
>     They attempt to stop the deflation, and further drive down
>     interest rates, hoping to motivate people to move money back into
>     the stock market and real estate.
>     What scared me was thinking of a fixed size inflexible currency,
>     like Bitcion, if it was prevalent enough, it would really compound
>     these unstable cycles.  I believe when the next recession hits, it
>     will really drive up Bitcion valuations, and no government will be
>     able to counteract this flow of capital out of everything else
>     into rapidly increasing in value Bitcoins.
>     But what I realized was that this would make at least some people
>     significantly more wealthy, and make them want to spend that much
>     more money.  In other words, instead of the government being the
>     only one spending and putting people to work, Bitcion holders
>     would likely fill this responsibility.
>     The one problem would be, like most things, it makes the rich or
>     those holding the most Bitcoins richer, making everyone else
>     poorer.  Where as governments tend to spend money to help the
>     poor, the rich would spend money on what they want, helping the
>     poor the way they wanted, after funding themselves.
>     Also, when the rich really do get richer, eventually the people at
>     the bottom, revolt, taking all the wealth away from the wealthy,
>     as has occurred in so many revolutions in the past.  But Bitcoins
>     would make this impossible.  As no government can steal a Bitcion
>     from anyone, like they can a factory or farm.
>     So, what does everyone think?  Would Bitcion becoming the dominant
>     currency increase or decrease boom bust cycles in the economy, and
>     by how much?
>     Brent Allsop
>     On 5/29/2013 8:57 AM, James Carroll wrote:
>>     On Wed, May 29, 2013 at 3:25 AM, Carl Youngblood
>>     <ca... at youngbloods.org <javascript:>> wrote:
>>         James, all I'm saying is that I don't think bitcoin will
>>         cause the human race to go extinct against our wills.
>>         Anything more than this is beyond my claim. If you do think
>>         that bitcoin will probably cause the human race to go
>>         extinct, then you disagree with me. Otherwise I think we agree.
>>     I think we generally agree that bitcoin is unlikely to have that
>>     effect. I simply took slight issue with your stated reasoning for
>>     why. But I think we agree in general.
>>     James
>>     -- 
>>     Web: http://james.jlcarroll.net
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