[ExI] [mta] Long Term Bitcoin Catastrophe?
Brent Allsop
brent.allsop at canonizer.com
Thu Jun 20 03:47:01 UTC 2013
Not just Paypal. Visa, Mastercard, Amex, Discover, all near $100
billion capitalization companies, all built on their ability to muscle
their way into steeling 3% of every effing transaction in the world.
Making money by shorting MasterCard International because of Bitcoin?
Priceless!
So, what's your current thinking about what a Bisection will be worth in
1 year, and long term. How high could they go? Anywhere near 1 Satoshi
= $1? At that value all of them would start to be close to all the real
estate in all the world, at today's prices.
Brent Allsop
On 6/19/2013 3:15 PM, sparrohawc at gmail.com wrote:
> Alright, I'm late to the party, but being a fan of Bitcoin I have a
> few things to add.
>
> Bitcoin will settle down as they are disseminated more widely. The
> market suffers when the assets are held in few hands, because it's
> easier for it to flow one way or the other - and thus easier for the
> value to shift quickly. The recent booms and busts are drastically
> less pronounced than they used to be. I hope this is a trend that
> continues, because it will encourage the use of bitcoins as a payment
> method instead of just a store of value that is likely to give good
> returns - and BTC as a payment method is, in my opinion, the best use
> of bitcoins. Having a single authority for online payments (see:
> Paypal) is counter-productive, as the opportunity for the authority to
> exploit its position increases with the number of people using it.
>
> Paypal is already practically a card-carrying villain if you happen to
> be in the business of selling things. It's far too easy to get bit by
> them, and the response is usually a shrug followed by a "We already
> have all your money" and "Who else are you going to go with?"
> Frankly, anything that can take them, and their ilk, down a couple
> pegs, is alright by me.
>
> The thing people keep failing to realize is that the creation of
> Bitcoins is the creation of a commodity, not a Ponzi scheme. It's
> only an investment in the sense that you are buying something that may
> increase in value in the future; it is in no way guaranteed, and the
> boom-and-busts are proof of that to anyone with a pair of eyes. If
> you go into it expecting to see nothing but a climb in value, you're
> exceptionally naive. I hope we'll see $1K/BTC in the future, but I'll
> admit that's just a wish born of greed. In reality, the only way
> that's going to happen is if people *use* bitcoins. With a Ponzi
> scheme, you're being told up-front that you should expect X amount of
> return. On top of that, the only use of a Ponzi is to get money
> back. That is far from the only use for bitcoins.
>
> I'll reiterate: I only care about Bitcoins climbing in price because I
> happen to have a few. Wholly separate from that is the hope that
> Bitcoins are USED, and used WIDELY, because I see them as a superior
> method of online payment.
>
> On Saturday, June 1, 2013 12:43:09 PM UTC-7, Brent.Allsop wrote:
>
>
> Future Theoreticians,
>
> Multiple thoughts have been percolating in my mind that has
> further falsified my fears of a Bitcoin Deflationary Catastrophe.
> Help me see if I'm making any mistakes with this line of reasoning.
>
> Currently, economies have a general instability in them, causing
> destructive boom and bust cycles. During the boom, everyone is
> spending all their cash, to get into the stock market. This tends
> to cause currency to become worth less, or inflation, since
> everybody is getting rid of it, to purchase stocks. But when the
> herd goes to far in this direction it creates a bubble. When a
> pull back starts the 'bubble' pops. This is compounded as people
> want to sell stocks (or not buy them), but instead put the capital
> into something like Cash. reversing everything in a compounding
> the problem unstable way.
>
> All this causes people to reduce spending and investing, which
> causes jobs to be lost, real estate values, where most wealth is,
> crash, the stock market crashes, and governments attempt to
> counteract this cycle buy pumping more money into the system.
> They attempt to stop the deflation, and further drive down
> interest rates, hoping to motivate people to move money back into
> the stock market and real estate.
>
> What scared me was thinking of a fixed size inflexible currency,
> like Bitcion, if it was prevalent enough, it would really compound
> these unstable cycles. I believe when the next recession hits, it
> will really drive up Bitcion valuations, and no government will be
> able to counteract this flow of capital out of everything else
> into rapidly increasing in value Bitcoins.
>
> But what I realized was that this would make at least some people
> significantly more wealthy, and make them want to spend that much
> more money. In other words, instead of the government being the
> only one spending and putting people to work, Bitcion holders
> would likely fill this responsibility.
>
> The one problem would be, like most things, it makes the rich or
> those holding the most Bitcoins richer, making everyone else
> poorer. Where as governments tend to spend money to help the
> poor, the rich would spend money on what they want, helping the
> poor the way they wanted, after funding themselves.
>
> Also, when the rich really do get richer, eventually the people at
> the bottom, revolt, taking all the wealth away from the wealthy,
> as has occurred in so many revolutions in the past. But Bitcoins
> would make this impossible. As no government can steal a Bitcion
> from anyone, like they can a factory or farm.
>
> So, what does everyone think? Would Bitcion becoming the dominant
> currency increase or decrease boom bust cycles in the economy, and
> by how much?
>
> Brent Allsop
>
>
> On 5/29/2013 8:57 AM, James Carroll wrote:
>> On Wed, May 29, 2013 at 3:25 AM, Carl Youngblood
>> <ca... at youngbloods.org <javascript:>> wrote:
>>
>> James, all I'm saying is that I don't think bitcoin will
>> cause the human race to go extinct against our wills.
>> Anything more than this is beyond my claim. If you do think
>> that bitcoin will probably cause the human race to go
>> extinct, then you disagree with me. Otherwise I think we agree.
>>
>>
>>
>> I think we generally agree that bitcoin is unlikely to have that
>> effect. I simply took slight issue with your stated reasoning for
>> why. But I think we agree in general.
>>
>> James
>>
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>
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