[ExI] cyprus banks

[Eugen Leitl]

On Tue, Mar 19, 2013 at 07:14:30PM +1200, Andrew Mckee wrote:

> Oh I'd just previously watched the Anonymous Singularity video on Youtube which mentioned 2045.
>
> Why does it make a difference?

Because predictions have to be falsifyable. 

> Since if I'm lucky enough to see 2046 I'd bet my back teeth that a lot of people will be standing around wondering why the Singularity hasn't happened already, and we'd be hearing a lot of standard boiler plate excuses as to why it didn't.

2045 is still comfortably remote enough that
people will forget. Kurzweil will be dead,
or in the dewar, so nobody can call him on
on this prediction.

Vernor Vinge is 68 year old already, so I
hope he makes his 2030 date (he'll be 85 years
old by then).

http://www-rohan.sdsu.edu/faculty/vinge/misc/WER2.html

"Progress in hardware has followed an amazingly steady curve in the last few decades. Based on this trend, I believe that the creation of greater-than-human intelligence will occur during the next thirty years. (Charles Platt has pointed out that AI enthusiasts have been making claims like this for thirty years. Just so I'm not guilty of a relative-time ambiguity, let me be more specific: I'll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030.) 
Now in 2003, I still think this time range statement is reasonable."

A decade later, less than 17 years remains from that
point. Wonder whether his assessment hasn't changed 
meanwhile. 

> Then of course some new predictercator would make a brand new bold and visionary prediction, rinse - repeat - ad nauseam.