[ExI] Whatever happened to peak oil by 2020?

[Eugen Leitl]

On Wed, May 08, 2013 at 08:45:33AM -0700, Adrian Tymes wrote:

> > http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/18/business/energy-environment/sasol-betting-big-on-gas-to-liquid-plant-in-us.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
> >
> 
> Not quite the numbers I was looking for - but it does suggest the
> technology is not well developed enough yet that the numbers
> are understood.  Thanks.

I'm sorry you dislike the numbers, or the conclusion one has to
draw from them.

But I can assure you that the core technology is almost a
century old, and you will not be able to make it jump through
hoops by throwing money at it (which you don't have) overnight.
Anything much beyond that time frame isn't relevant, anyway.

Anything based on gasified coal is dead-ended, anyway, so
only methane-derived technology (gas to oil in oldspeak) are
interesting. I will again point everybody towards
http://www.amazon.com/Beyond-Oil-Gas-Methanol-Economy/dp/3527324224/
which has a good story (minus nuke).