[ExI] Whatever happened to peak oil by 2020?
eugen at leitl.org
Sat May 11 15:37:32 UTC 2013
On Sat, May 11, 2013 at 02:00:26PM +0200, Tomaz Kristan wrote:
> > so everything needs to be driven from renewable only
> There is nothing like renewable. If you are talking about the Sun (wind),
Renewable on a scale distinctly shorter than well-fermented dead dinos.
> there is no greater energy spending around, than this of our star. Like
4 MT/s total flux, 2 kg/s (2 Hz of Tsar bombas) just what Earth intecepts.
A factor of 10^4 in excess of our current needs.
> every star it burning mostly in vain.
> (Putting down star fires is a must.)
> A postmodernist friend said to me the other day. Can you imagine the energy
> inefficiency going with the BMW for a bucket of parsley to the supermarket?
Nevermind that in the US, you're putting 10 buckets of dead dino for
each bucket of parsley, without even having fired up your BMW.
> I told him, that in the whole energy chain needed for this parsley, the
> Mother Nature did it at least 1000 times worse than this BMW driver to the
> mole and back.
Even today's biofuels have an abysmal photosynthetic energy efficiency.
> On Sat, May 11, 2013 at 12:32 PM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> > On Fri, May 10, 2013 at 02:02:07PM -0400, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
> > > On Wed, May 8, 2013 at 5:33 PM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> > >
> > > > Anything based on gasified coal is dead-ended, anyway
> > >
> > > ### Why?
> > >
> > > (only technical/economic issues, no eco-freak-caused legal/political
> > > obstacles, please)
> > It is funny you make that stipulation to me in particular.
> > The reasons are simple enough -- peak total fossil is somewhen 2020..2030
> > (the exact decade doesn't matter), so everything needs to be driven
> > from renewable only. At this point your source of carbon can be abitrary,
> > including direct CO2 capture from air, or scrubbing flue gas.
> > See http://www.amazon.com/Beyond-Oil-Gas-Methanol-Economy/dp/3527324224/
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