[ExI] Whatever happened to peak oil by 2020?

[Kellycoinguy]

Sorry for top posting... Stupid phone...

The problem here is that there are two sets of facts and no good way to establish which are correct.

The fact is that oil will get scarcer at some point (unless we make more from shale, coal, natural gas our something) and at that point it will get more expensive. We will probably reach peak affordable oil before peak oil.

The problem with unaffordable oil is that it puts a tax on everything we do. It will be an economic disaster before it will be an ecological disaster imho... Ymmv.

Since the Neo pagans will lie to protect the earth goddess... And the oil companies and others will lie to protect the bottom line and the status quo... We are left the unfortunate consumers of competing lies.

I personally think Eugen is too alarmed about all this, but that does not imply there is no problem at all... Just that his buddies at the oil drum are drumming for mother earth, not for the fatherland.

I think energy is a problem with a solution. actually multiple solutions. I'm pretty sure global warming can't be solved by the current generation of proposed solutions. all the solar and wind in the world won't help if it is just extra energy. Sequestration of CO2 is the only viable option,  imho. Again, ymmv. If we have extra capacity, we will use it. It is human nature. The whales will be hunted until it is not profitable to hunt whales. Same with oil.

-Kelly


Sent fimhorKellyom my Samsung EpiKellyc™ 4G TouchEugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:On Sat, May 11, 2013 at 01:43:18PM -0400, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
> On Sat, May 11, 2013 at 6:32 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> 
> >
> > 
> 
> ### Absolutely no reason for peak total fossil at least for a hundred
> years, if not more. Proven reserves alone are sufficient for that
> long, even without counting methane clathrates. Try wikipedia.

The facts you're claiming are unfortunately not true. 

> And absolutely no need to be restricted to renewables. Existing
> technologies alone (nuclear, deep geothermal) are sufficient to keep
> us running at current levels for thousands of years. Again, try
> wikipedia.

The facts you're claiming are unfortunately not true.

I have absolutely no further interest in this thread.
The facts are out there, make of them what you will.
If you don't feel you need facts for that, I'm fine with that, too.
You pays your money, and you takes your chances.
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