[ExI] Bitcoins Again

Brent Allsop brent.allsop at canonizer.com
Tue May 14 22:41:38 UTC 2013

Hi Gordon,

Wouldn't it be great to know, concisely and quantitatively, just what all
the transhumanist Bitcoin experts believed about this?  Just how bullish
are you/they?  And I bet tracking this real time, over lots of experts, all
communicating concisely and quantitatively about why they believe, what
they believe, would provide the most intelligent possible predictions about
both the near and long term future of Bitcoins, and any effect they may
have on the world economy, and so on.

I, like you, Gordon, am very bullish.  I think it would be much better to
invest in the coins, at this point, and am heavily investing in them,
rather than mining hardware.  James, are you investing in mining hardware
or Bitcoins?  Is anyone else?  I consider you a good expert, and would like
to know which way you really lean, why, and if you are actually investing
either way?

Wouldn't it be great to know, concisely and quantitatively, what all
possible risks the experts believe, and their odds, and all that?

If bit coins turn out to be catastrophic in any way, for either holders or
the economy, it'd be great to know, sooner, rather than later, and a crowd
of experts, amplifying their wisdom, concisely and quantitatively, about
potential risks, would be way beyond any other intelligent system.

It does take a lot of work (one person can't do it) for everyone to build
consensus, and to communicate concisely and quantitatively, so you know who
does and does not agree, and why, but, as can now be shown on the
consciousness survey project, the intelligence of everyone working on such
blows anything else (like the primitive ivory tower, and their worthless 20
thousand "peer reviewed" documents) or any other individual "talking head
pundit" away on any moral issue such as this.

Brent Allsop

Brent Allsop

On Tue, May 14, 2013 at 10:06 AM, Gordon <gts_2000 at yahoo.com> wrote:

> Mirco Romanato <painlord2k at libero.it> wrote:
> *> *Il 14/05/2013 15:39, Gordon ha scritto:
> >> Here is a live stream of an inexpensive Butterfly ASIC in operation:
> >>
> >> http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2013/05/butterfly_live/
> >>
> >> Pooled, it is mining about 2 BTC per 10 days. That is a fantastic ROI at
> >> current prices, but I suspect you cannot buy one anytime soon at the
> >> list price. As I understand it, it is backlogged into the thousands.
> >> There is no telling what the economics will look like by the time your
> >> order is filled, if it is ever filled.
> >Currently the difficulty of mining went up five times from January.
> >If it keep this, by the end of September it will be up other ten times
> >from January. The raising appear to be linear, so it is proportional to
> >the ASIC production (or it appear so to me).
> Given the uncertainty about delivery dates on these Butterfly ASIC miners,
> my thought for the moment is that anyone fundamentally bullish on the
> outlook for BTC over the next year or so should invest in BTC rather than
> commit those same funds to a miner order. Would you agree, Mirco?
> Gordon
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