[ExI] Long Term Bitcoin Catastrophe?

Brent Allsop brent.allsop at canonizer.com
Thu May 23 00:14:14 UTC 2013

Expert Theoreticians about the future,

It seems to me there is a high probability that the Bitcoin network 
could, in the long term, become a mathematical catastrophe.  It could 
become the Mother of all Ponzi schemes.  If you project the current 
growth rates at all, it seems very likely that a single Bitcoin could be 
worth over a $ million within 5 years.  And a good possibility that that 
will be just the start.

Perhaps this was the motivation of the brilliant original crypto nerd 
creators, and why they remain anonymous.  Most of the early mined coins 
remain out of circulation.  They are probably already living very 
comfortable lives selling very few of their total hoard.

If the bleating heard  of humanity gets in their heads some kind of "Law 
of the Bitcoin", that you are guaranteed to get a 5 times return (as 
history is already showing), every year, for any investment in Bitcoins, 
no matter how 'black' a market any government may try to make investing 
in Bitcoins, will anyone be able to resist such a mathematical certainty 

Bitcoins could soon start draining capital from anything with value, 
such as all fiat currencies, the stock market, gold....  And if there is 
another recession, this could really accelerate the growth of the value 
of Bitcoins.  If the governments fired up the currency printing presses, 
everything they print could quickly evaporate into Bitcoins.  Sure, they 
could make currencies inflate faster than everything else of value, but 
it seems to me there is a good chance that nobody could stop the soon to 
be mathematical certainty of rapidly deflating Bitcoins.

What do all you experts think of this and anything else to do with 
Bitcoins.  Is there any kind of expert consensus about the future of 
Bitcoins, both near and long term?  I've canonized a first draft of my 
thoughts about Bitcoins, and their future in a "Currency Expert Survey 

See: http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/155

I'd love to find out, concisely and quantitatively, what all you experts 
do or don't agree with.

How many of you own bitcoins?  Anyone Mining bitcoins?  and what do all 
of you think the value of a Bitcoin will be in one year?:


Does anyone disagree with my working hypotheses?  Am I making any other 
mistakes in any of this reasoning?

I know all of you are very intelligent Bitcoin experts, and even better 
future visionaries.  Let's get together and amplify all of our 
collective wisdom on this, build an expert consensus about what is 
important, any possible eventualities, and rigorously measure it all.  
Alone, my opnion surely isn't worth any more than any of the other 
clueless beetling pundits out there.  But if we all work together, we 
could develop a very concise, quantitative, amplified expert visionary 
description of the future.

Let's do this so we can both possibly make a LOT of money, while 
together collaboratively avoiding any potential risks, (i.e. when will 
the bubble really pop and how?) and maybe even eventually save the world 
from a mathematical catastrophe via prophetic moral warning?


Brent Allsop

More information about the extropy-chat mailing list