[ExI] Long Term Bitcoin Catastrophe?

[Gordon]

Brent Allsop <brent.allsop at canonizer.com> wrote:


> It could become the Mother of all Ponzi schemes. 

Ponzi schemes, normally understood, involve early investors being paid with the investments of late investors. That is not happening with bitcoin.

> If you project the current growth rates at all, it seems very likely that a single Bitcoin could be worth over 
a $ million within 5 years.  And a good possibility that that will be just the start.<

I hope you're right!


> I've canonized a first draft of my thoughts about Bitcoins, and their future in a "Currency Expert Survey Project" See: http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/155<

Interesting project. I might contribute if I find the time.

> How many of you own bitcoins?  Anyone Mining bitcoins?  and what do all of you think the value of a Bitcoin will be in one year?:<

I followed Bitcoin casually from its inception, but (regrettably) did not take it seriously until only recently, when the total capitalization broke above 1 billion USD. I invested on three separate occasions after the market corrected. I'm happy with my average price, which is below the current market. 

The longer term charts would seem to indicate that the price is currently completing a consolidation pattern with the price fairly stable around $122 +/- $5 or so. If the price breaks higher here, to about $130-$135, especially on high volume, I would guess then that it might rise again in the next year to something near its all time high of about $260. If it instead breaks to do the downside then I would be concerned about the next year or so. Of course this is all predicated on the validity the science (art?) of technical analysis of price trends, which might be akin to reading tea leaves. If anyone has developed a model for doing fundamental analysis of bitcoin prices then I would be interested in hearing about it.

> I know all of you are very intelligent Bitcoin experts

I do not consider myself an expert in Bitcoin, but I do have a lot of experience trading and investing in other markets. I spent many years as an investment adviser. I happen also be something of a geek, and so here I am with a position in bitcoins. :)

Gordon
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