[ExI] [mta] Re: Long Term Bitcoin Catastrophe?

Thu May 23 04:07:25 UTC 2013

Hi Gordon,

Thanks for the reply!

On 5/22/2013 7:41 PM, Gordon wrote:
> Brent Allsop <brent.allsop at canonizer.com> wrote:
>
> > It could become the Mother of all Ponzi schemes.
>
> Ponzi schemes, normally understood, involve early investors being paid 
> with the investments of late investors. That is not happening with 
> bitcoin.

If you really think this, you should canonize it.  I bet nobody would 
agree with you.  But I could be very mistaken.  You haven't convinced me 
with just this.  Sure, talking short term, what you are saying may be 
true.  But long term, after Bitcoins have sucked every cent of capital 
out of the stock market, all real estate, and everything of any value, 
all of the people that had been living high on the hog for so long, off 
of the profits of the last investors, and there is finally nothing of 
value left in society to invest in Bitcoins, what happens then?  It's 
obviosly not like any Ponzi scheme to date, but I believe your missing 
the possible bigger picture.  Again, canonizer.com can help filter 
mistakes like this, if they are mistakes, from all of our thinking, 
while the good ideas can rise above this kind of noise by building an 
expert consensus.

>
> > If you project the current growth rates at all, it seems very likely that a single 
> Bitcoin could be worth over
> a $ million within 5 years.  And a good possibility that that will be 
> just the start.<
>
> I hope you're right!

Again, short term, I, and I'm sure the entire herd is obviously very 
tempted to think the same.  But, are you being completely morally blind 
to the long term fundamental possibilities?

>
> > I've canonized a first draft of my thoughts about Bitcoins, and their 
> future in a "Currency Expert Survey Project" See: 
> http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/155<
>
> Interesting project. I might contribute if I find the time.
>
> > How many of you own bitcoins?  Anyone Mining bitcoins?  and what do 
> all of you think the value of a Bitcoin will be in one year?:<
>
> I followed Bitcoin casually from its inception, but (regrettably) did 
> not take it seriously until only recently, when the total 
> capitalization broke above 1 billion USD. I invested on three separate 
> occasions after the market corrected. I'm happy with my average price, 
> which is below the current market.
>
> The longer term charts would seem to indicate that the price is 
> currently completing a consolidation pattern with the price fairly 
> stable around $122 +/- $5 or so. If the price breaks higher here, to 
> about $130-$135, especially on high volume, I would guess then that it 
> might rise again in the next year to something near its all time high 
> of about $260. If it instead breaks to do the downside then I would be 
> concerned about the next year or so. Of course this is all predicated 
> on the validity the science (art?) of technical analysis of price 
> trends, which might be akin to reading tea leaves. If anyone has 
> developed a model for doing fundamental analysis of bitcoin prices 
> then I would be interested in hearing about it.

Again, to me, this is all short term meaningless tea leaves that have 
nothing to do with any true long term mathematical fundamentals that 
really matter.  You can't predict how fast the current holders of 
Bitcoins are going to temporarily cash in, and even if you could, what 
good is that compared to any long term mathematical fundamentals.  As is 
typical of the herd, so many pundits are focusing on this kind of short 
term BS, and completely missing what is really important.

>
> > I know all of you are very intelligent Bitcoin experts
>
> I do not consider myself an expert in Bitcoin, but I do have a lot of 
> experience trading and investing in other markets. I spent many years 
> as an investment adviser. I happen also be something of a geek, and so 
> here I am with a position in bitcoins. :)
>

You're at least as good as an expert as I, and probably 90% of the 
world's experts.  Let's get a "Currency Expert" camp started for you.  
As a peer, I'd surely rate you near the top of My list of experts.  
There are quite a few experts out there I know I'd rank highly.  Who do 
you all think we would all rank as the worlds best currency expert? 
http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/151.  Would all of you trust the 
consensus of such a list of peer ranked experts as much as I would or 
should?

The question is, how much expert consensus is there about either of our 
positions?  That is what will surely be the "expert consensus", any such 
expert consensus that arises will be way more intelligent than any of us 
as blind and biased individuals could come up with.

What do you currently think the value of Bitcoins will be in one year?  
Is there any possibility it will be around 5 times it's value today, as 
is being predicted by the "Law of Bitcoins" camp? 
http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2  If so, it takes less than a minut 
to join that camp.  If not, it only takes a minute or two to start a new 
camp providing any different POV - so we can see which way the emerging 
expert consensus is leaning.  Far less time than it took you to waste 
your time replying to this post.  Or do you just prefer lazy half baked, 
possibly mostly mistaken thinking, and have no interest in finding out 
if anyone agrees with you, or not, and why?

Here's another question for all you way better than me experts, 
especially Giulio who I've CCed.  Is there any way the Bitcoin network 
could be altered to allow for more than currently allotted 21 million 
Bitcoins?  Even if 90% of the holders wanted to do this to try to stop a 
terrible hyper deflation?  It doesn't seem possible to me, since even if 
90% of the exchanges did agree to 'fork' the block chain, if 5% kept the 
old only 21 million chain operating, everyone would quickly abandon the 
90% fork and switch over to purchase the still hyper deflating chain, 
making the problem explosively worse.  Am I just a clueless, mistaken, 
Bitcoin non expert, or has anyone else wondered such things?  If I'm 
mistaken, what is the expert consensus, and what will make it pop, or 
not - and when?

Gordon, another question for you.  What do you think is the best wallet, 
and which wallet are you using?  Are you in the Coinbase camp, or is 
there something better and safer? http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/127 .  
And what do you think of any other currency, in comparison, like the 
Ripple? http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/150/4 ?  Are you investing in any 
other currency?  Which ones are you most focusing on?  Do you have any 
interest in how your current thinking may compare with other experts?  
Anyone else?  Same questions!  Would you not value knowing what the 
experts think is the current best and safest wallet to use?  If the one 
you are currently using, become risky, or inferior compared to another, 
wouldn't you want to know, before everyone else?

Brent Allsop

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