[ExI] FW: How Electricity Became a Luxury Good

[BillK]

On Wed, Sep 11, 2013 at 1:07 PM, Eugen Leitl  wrote:
> No, we've already not having "enough" since roughly 2004.
> What we have is a bumpy plateau (decline, in terms of net
> energy) despite increasing effort, and according increase
> of price. The pain point varies across the globe, but is
> roughly in 100-115 USD/barrel (today's value) range. This is what
> is causing demand destruction. Lack of fuel liquids causes
> a shift to somewhat more available fuel solids, and increasingly
> lower-grade fuel solids, accelerating advent of peak total
> fossil, roughly 2020 (the exact time doesn't matter, as
> it's a regime, not a point of inflection).
>
> We've been running in energy hunger mode. It is steadily
> getting worse. Energy hunger compromises our ability to
> alleviate energy hunger. The degree of compromise is not
> linear and likely not smooth, and hence surprising to
> many.
>
>

The International Energy Outlook 2013 has recently been published by
the U.S. Department of Energy.
They forecast a fairly steady increase in worldwide energy consumption
of oil, coal, natural gas, nuclear and renewables AND carbon dioxide
emissions up to 2040.

They have allowed for increased prices to cause a slowdown in the rate
of increase of oil use and the increased prices also making harder to
get resources viable.

The full report is here:
<http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/index.cfm>

A review (criticism?) of the report is here:
<http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/When-will-the-Clean-Energy-Future-we-Dream-of-Actually-Arrive.html>

Quote from the review -
If the experts at the U.S. Department of Energy are right, the
startling “new” fuels of 2040 will be oil, coal, and natural gas --
and we will find ourselves on a baking, painfully uncomfortable
planet.


BillK