[ExI] FW: How Electricity Became a Luxury Good

Eugen Leitl eugen at leitl.org
Wed Sep 11 15:25:34 UTC 2013

On Wed, Sep 11, 2013 at 03:07:32PM +0100, BillK wrote:

> The International Energy Outlook 2013 has recently been published by

I recommend you research how official predictions
have fared over reasonably short periods. Hint:
save your printer's paper, or download volume. 
It's not worth it.

> the U.S. Department of Energy.
> They forecast a fairly steady increase in worldwide energy consumption
> of oil, coal, natural gas, nuclear and 

They can forecast all that what they want, volume
by 2040 will be down, and net energy will be way 
down. That's easy to predict, because it's our

> renewables AND carbon dioxide

Renewables will be way up, but incapable to fill the demand
gap. Infrastructure transition will need even more energy,
so you have to prioritize. There will be rationing.

> emissions up to 2040.
> They have allowed for increased prices to cause a slowdown in the rate

Such Sherlocks. Forecasting what's been going on for years.

> of increase of oil use and the increased prices also making harder to
> get resources viable.

So despite demand destruction and dropping net energy due
to EROEI and rising effort bancrupting companies they
project the volume will be way up? Fed men speaking
with forked tongue, from both sides of the mouth. 
> The full report is here:
> <http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/index.cfm>
> A review (criticism?) of the report is here:
> <http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/When-will-the-Clean-Energy-Future-we-Dream-of-Actually-Arrive.html>
> Quote from the review -
> If the experts at the U.S. Department of Energy are right, the

That's a very large if.

> startling “new” fuels of 2040 will be oil, coal, and natural gas --
> and we will find ourselves on a baking, painfully uncomfortable
> planet.

That's a given. But about half of all fuel will remain
the ground, as it's not recoverable. So starvation slightly
ahead of the heat stroke. 
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