[ExI] Why Global Warming Will Be Far Worse, Far Sooner, Than Forecasts Predict

BillK pharos at gmail.com
Fri Sep 13 21:00:40 UTC 2013

David Brin, in his blog, points to an article showing that the IPCC
(already hated by the global warming deniers) has a history of being
far, far too conservative in their warming forecasts,


The IPCC process virtually assures that all the research used in the
report will be several years old.  Since it only uses peer reviewed
work and a consensus process, it has a long lead-time and a least
common denominator data set.
But that’s only part of the reason the IPCC reports have been
out-of-date-on-date-of–issue: for the most part, they still ignore the
effects of positive feedbacks on warming.

In short, empirical evidence suggests today’s worst-case scenarios are
tomorrow’s most-likely outcomes.  The same is true when we do ex-ante
analysis of modeling done in the early stages of climate research.
Today’s reality goes well beyond even the most dire past predictions.
Bottom line: The future we’re fashioning is completely incompatible
with the civilization we’ve built, and the IPCC slow-walks,
understates and outright ignores much of the science that screams at
us to do something about it.


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