[ExI] Silence in the sky-but why?

[Eugen Leitl]

On Thu, Sep 26, 2013 at 01:38:12PM -0700, spike wrote:

> Indeed.  Black Knight Syndrome isn't restricted to ExI, although we have
> more than our share of it.  As always, all I ask is that those of you who
> are capable of making math models, even single digit BOTECs, do it.  This is
> important for an upcoming discussion I had hoped to have here regarding
> Germany and its current attitude towards solar power.  Even single digit

Regardless how current coalition maneuvring plans will come out, the
Energiewende -- which was a fig leaf in the first place -- will be
blown away in short order.

We need to start looking elsewhere. E.g.

http://www.renewablesinternational.net/denmark-bans-fossil-fired-heaters/150/537/62090/

Denmark partly bans fossil-fired heaters

The Danes continue to lead the way in the switch to a 100 percent renewable supply of energy. This year, they have banned the installation of heating systems fired with oil or natural gas in new buildings, and the clock is ticking for some existing systems as well.

In February, Austrian blogger Cornelia Daniel posted some news about Denmark and wondered why the German-language press had not yet reported on it. Roughly 6 weeks before her post, a ban on the installation of heating systems fired with oil or natural gas took effect in Denmark for new buildings. What's more, starting in 2016 the installation of oil-fired heating systems will also be banned in existing buildings if there is a local supply of district heat or natural gas.

As she points out, all of this information has been available since March 2012 – and it's even in English (PDF). As I pointed out last fall, Denmark has much more ambitious goals than Germany (100 percent renewables in the old energy sectors by 2050, compared to a mere 80 percent in Germany – and that only for electricity), but we continue to focus on the Denmark's big neighbor as though Germany were attempting to do something radical. In reality, the Germans have their work cut out for them just catching up with the Danes.

In Denmark, the long-term goal for the heat sector includes the use of excess renewable power to generate heat from electrical systems (heat can be stored more easily than power) along with power-to-gas (P2G) and cogeneration fired with biomass. (Craig Morris)

Some untended consequences: pipe infrastructure is great for delivery
and natural gas infrastructure already allows you to buffer across
seasonal variations. Natural gas infrastructure at the edge is
compatible with 5-15% hydrogen, which makes methane even more 
suitable for micro co-gen with ICEs and doesn't hurt fuel cells.

Considering the potential for wind, Denmark should look
into wind gas (hydrogen and synmethane) and *improve* methane
infrastructure. Kill coal and oil, but methane is a gateway
drug to a hydrogen/synfuel economy.

> BOTECs can deeply influence one's outlook.

I wish people would just take the time to read and
digest what is easily available online. There's enough
empirical data out there. No need to guess.