[ExI] What's Wrong With Academic Futurists?

[Robin D Hanson]

On Jan 26, 2014, at 11:55 AM, spike wrote
>> If you have no confidence in "people's" ability to predict, I don't see
>> how that can be the basis for preferring some people's ability over
>> others...Robin Hanson  http://hanson.gmu.edu
> 
> Robin, there is a field of professional forecasters a bit like what you are
> describing, but we have no access to their work because it is classified
> secret.  ...
> The military has a specific branch of service with a specialized calculus
> designed to deal with an astonishing array of variables in the field of
> futurism.  When guys retire from this discipline, they are highly prized by
> industry for that ability. 

There are obviously many reasons why folks with military experience might
be prized by industry. So while there may be a secret cadre of unusually 
accurate military futurists, I don't see how the rest of us can tell. 

I've given talks to military futurist groups before, FYI.

Robin Hanson  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Res. Assoc., Future of Humanity Inst., Oxford Univ.
Assoc. Professor, George Mason University
Chief Scientist, Consensus Point
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030
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