[ExI] What's Wrong With Academic Futurists?

[Robin D Hanson]

On Jan 28, 2014, at 5:24 PM, Keith Henson wrote:
>> One can also score a pool of conditional predictions for accuracy. So even if
>> you only have opinions on what might happen if some other things happen,
>> we can still talk about the general accuracy of your predictions.
> 
> You completely lost me here.  If you make a prediction for ten years
> out, the only way I can see to rate it for accuracy is to wait ten
> years and see what has happened.  If you have another idea, I would be
> really interested in it.

To score a set of conditional forecasts, you just score the subset of them where
the conditions turned out to be true.

Robin Hanson  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Res. Assoc., Future of Humanity Inst., Oxford Univ.
Assoc. Professor, George Mason University
Chief Scientist, Consensus Point
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