[ExI] What's Wrong With Academic Futurists?

[Keith Henson]

On Wed, Jan 29, 2014 at 4:00 AM,  Robin D Hanson <rhanson at gmu.edu> wrote:

>
> On Jan 28, 2014, at 5:24 PM, Keith Henson wrote:
(Robin)
>>> One can also score a pool of conditional predictions for accuracy. So even if
>>> you only have opinions on what might happen if some other things happen,
>>> we can still talk about the general accuracy of your predictions.
>>
>> You completely lost me here.  If you make a prediction for ten years
>> out, the only way I can see to rate it for accuracy is to wait ten
>> years and see what has happened.  If you have another idea, I would be
>> really interested in it.
>
> To score a set of conditional forecasts, you just score the subset of them where
> the conditions turned out to be true.

I am sure you know what you are talking about, but I still don't see
the utility.

If there is a major drought, then there will be a famine.  Or taking
it further, if there is a drought and famine, then we are likely to
have a war or civil disruption.

Is that the kind of predictions you are talking about?

Keitj