[ExI] taxonomy for fermi paradox fans:
anders at aleph.se
Mon Feb 2 10:54:38 UTC 2015
Giovanni Santostasi <gsantostasi at gmail.com> , 1/2/2015 7:39 PM:
I know it sounds difficult to swallow. But there is only one logical solution to the Fermi's Paradox. We are the first "advanced" civilization in the galaxy if not the entire visible universe.
No, that is one *possible* explanation. There are a lot of logically consistent or even practically possible explanations (think of the low tech ceiling hypothesis, the zoo hypothesis, the convergence hypothesis, the xrisk hypothesis...). The home alone answer might be a likely-looking one, but if it was the only logical one the others would have clear inconsistencies.
People are *way* to certain about their favourite Fermi answers. Given that this is a question about the dynamics of intelligence in the universe at large, a domain we have nearly no data in and no proper theory of how to investigate properly, we should be epistemically humble.
Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University
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