[ExI] bar sinister gets more than you, was:... gets more than you do

[spike]

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes
…

When I run it, I get a maximum of 333333333 pennies ($3,333,333.33) with an average expected payout of 166666666.5 pennies ($1,666,666.665)… Adrian 

 

Cool thanks.  I am hoping to get a closed form solution for optimum strategy, for my Monte Carlo sim is giving me the same answer you got: 33,333,333.  

 

To clean it up a bit, assume integer number of dollars and zero is not a possibility.  So the benefactor who set up the game is doing a rand() function, multiplying by 10M and rounding up to the next higher integer dollar.  So the choices are between 1 and 10M dollars inclusive, no metal change.

 

I also got your result from my sim: your optimal bid is 3,333,333 and your expected winnings are 1,666,667 bucks and that greedy Mr. Potter’s take is twice that, curse the bastard.  Your risk of Potter taking all the money and you going home empty-handed is about 1/3.

 

I will keep working on that closed-form solution.

 

spike

 

 

 

 

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