[ExI] IoT futurists' predictions - not bad

[Adrian Tymes]

On Dec 6, 2016 12:35 PM, "William Flynn Wallace" <foozler83 at gmail.com>
wrote:

https://www.hpematter.com/iot-issue/ask-the-futurists-10-
bold-predictions-for-2030?jumpid=em_kc671trsz8_AID-510039514


Assuming you wished discussion of the points:

1) No.  There may be more driverless cars by 2030, but complete or almost
complete elimination of human-driven cars will take decades.  Just look at
the growing mean time between new cars today, especially among the poor.
And first we'd have to get to the point where most people who ate looking
for a new car would prefer s driverless one, especially it making economic
sense.  Mandates for switching to driverless cars can not happen until
after that point is reached.

2) Incoherent.  It talks about stuff that is already happening, but makes
no case for a major switch from how things are now.  (Other than agents
managing one's schedule - which, again, already happens for some, to the
extent tolerated.)

3) Possible, but more because of the proliferation of at-home medical
devices than wearable medical devices.

4) The majority of the problem was never technical, but political.  Unless
there are far fewer taxation-by-banditry governments by 2030, food waste
will largely continue.

5) Some will.  Some will line pockets.  The IoT can free up funds, but it
can not dictate how (or how wisely) that money will be spent.

6) Perhaps.  But some of them seem pretty totally motivated already.  The
true question is whether they will - not just could, but will - do
significantly more damage per unit time than they do today.

7) They exist today, but they are not practical.  This is likely to remain
the case, much like how "gorilla arm" thwarted dreams of
primarily-large-touchscreen driven interfaces; the closest equivalent
that's proven practical is smartphobes or tablets that can be laid flat on
a table.  (This email is being composed on one, and it is nowhere near as
efficient as a normal keyboard would have been.)

8) We already do.  It has not resulted in 15 hour work weeks, but in the
displacement of those unable or unwilling to learn how to use the new tools.

9) And more evil.  As with 4 and 5, the point is more what people will do,
not merely what they will be able to do.

10) Not by 2030.  That would require advances in usability, implants, and
related technologies that people keep writing off or assuming, just like
how they keep claiming that turning a vague idea into a solid, (nearly)
bugless app usable by most of a target audience is "just a small matter of
programming".
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20161206/bbfceec8/attachment.html>