[ExI] Google’s Go Victory Is Just a Glimpse of How Powerful AI Will Be

[Robin D Hanson]

On Jan 31, 2016, at 2:04 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se<mailto:anders at aleph.se>> wrote:

On 2016-01-31 18:25, John Clark wrote:
<http://www.wired.com/2016/01/googles-go-victory-is-just-a-glimpse-of-how-powerful-ai-will-be/?mbid=nl_13116>http://www.wired.com/2016/01/googles-go-victory-is-just-a-glimpse-of-how-powerful-ai-will-be/?mbid=nl_13116

Around here the big topic has been how much this implies about future AI progress. Much has been made of that domain experts were suprised by how fast it went, but given Armstrong & Sotala's results, I would not be too shocked: experts are bad at prediction.

I think Eliezer has a relevant point: he is concerned that "Human neural intelligence is not that complicated and current algorithms are touching on keystone, foundational aspects of it." - i.e. we may have found a general tool in deep learning that reduces the "to do" list of AGI by at least one line (out of an unknown number).

More practically I think the Wired article gets things right: this is a big deal commercially. Solving tricky value functions is worth money - and if they do generalize to hand-eye coordination, then we will have a practical robot revolution. But even merely software good value functions might be a huge deal when applied to logistics and other kinds of planning. Or advertising.

If this is a big deal commercially, it is odd that release of this news didn’t bump the google stock price, nor the value of the tech sector as a whole. Not sure it has bumped the price of any identifiable related commercial sector.

Robin Hanson rhanson at gmu.edu<mailto:rhanson at gmu.edu>
Future of Humanity Inst., Oxford University
Assoc. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
See my new book: http://ageofem.com









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