[ExI] Google’s Go Victory Is Just a Glimpse of How Powerful AI Will Be

Alejandro Dubrovsky alito at organicrobot.com
Tue Feb 2 14:14:50 UTC 2016

On 02/02/16 03:00, Robin D Hanson wrote:
>> On Jan 31, 2016, at 2:04 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se
>> <mailto:anders at aleph.se>> wrote:
>> On 2016-01-31 18:25, John Clark wrote:
>>> <http://www.wired.com/2016/01/googles-go-victory-is-just-a-glimpse-of-how-powerful-ai-will-be/?mbid=nl_13116>http://www.wired.com/2016/01/googles-go-victory-is-just-a-glimpse-of-how-powerful-ai-will-be/?mbid=nl_13116
>> Around here the big topic has been how much this implies about future
>> AI progress. Much has been made of that domain experts were suprised
>> by how fast it went, but given Armstrong & Sotala's results, I would
>> not be too shocked: experts are bad at prediction.
>> I think Eliezer has a relevant point: he is concerned that "Human
>> neural intelligence is not that complicated and current algorithms are
>> touching on keystone, foundational aspects of it." - i.e. we may have
>> found a general tool in deep learning that reduces the "to do" list of
>> AGI by at least one line (out of an unknown number).
>> More practically I think the Wired article gets things right: this is
>> a big deal commercially. Solving tricky value functions is worth money
>> - and if they do generalize to hand-eye coordination, then we will
>> have a practical robot revolution. But even merely software good value
>> functions might be a huge deal when applied to logistics and other
>> kinds of planning. Or advertising.
> If this is a big deal commercially, it is odd that release of this news
> didn’t bump the google stock price, nor the value of the tech sector as
> a whole. Not sure it has bumped the price of any identifiable related
> commercial sector.
The games were played back in October, and insiders would have known 
that it was doing remarkably well even before that.

Here's Nvidia's stock price:

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