[ExI] I Miss The King of Extropia
spike66 at att.net
Sun Jul 17 23:15:17 UTC 2016
>... On Behalf Of rex
Subject: Re: [ExI] I Miss The King of Extropia
spike <spike66 at att.net> [2016-07-17 10:20]:
>>... That argument only applies to about six states. If we want to go with the
> pragmatic argument, one can check the opinion polls in one’s state the
> week before the election, then if it isn’t within the margin of error, the
> outcome is certain and one gets to vote however they want without fear of
> contributing to the winner’s margin.
>...MoE is merely an arbitrary number, typically 0.95. All it means is that the outcome is expected to be within that confidence internal (95% or whatever) 95% of the time. This also means that it's expected to be outside the MoE 5% of the time. It does NOT mean the outcome is certain. -rex
Hi Rex, ok sure. Everyone is free to decide what is the appropriate margin and for which candidate. The new question becomes: what is the requisite pre-election poll margin before one feels free to vote for the candidate he or she thinks is the best one?
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