[ExI] I Miss The King of Extropia
rex at nosyntax.net
Sun Jul 17 22:49:45 UTC 2016
spike <spike66 at att.net> [2016-07-17 10:20]:
> That argument only applies to about six states. If we want to go with the
> pragmatic argument, one can check the opinion polls in one’s state the
> week before the election, then if it isn’t within the margin of error, the
> outcome is certain and one gets to vote however they want without fear of
> contributing to the winner’s margin.
MoE is merely an arbitrary number, typically 0.95. All it means is that the
outcome is expected to be within that confidence internal (95% or whatever)
95% of the time. This also means that it's expected to be outside the MoE
5% of the time. It does NOT mean the outcome is certain.
If an economist drops his car keys in a dark alley he looks
for them under the nearest streetlight.
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