[ExI] Global catastrophic risk report

Tomaz Kristan protokol2020 at gmail.com
Sun May 1 15:00:21 UTC 2016

Give me some raw data. A lot of raw data, and I'll be able to see if there
is any statistically significant warming taking place,myself.

If you don't have the raw the data to publish, don't even bother.

On Sun, May 1, 2016 at 4:33 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> On 2016-05-01 12:10, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
> I came across the following:
> http://globalprioritiesproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Global-Catastrophic-Risk-Annual-Report-2016-FINAL.pdf
> ### It lists global warming (renamed "climate change") right at the top,
> even ahead of nuclear war. Really? This is so ridiculous it beggars
> imagination.
> Heh. I happen to know a fair bit about this report, since it was partially
> written by people in my office (GPP is half FHI). There is a degree of
> politics involved in what gets listed, even though I regard it as far more
> objective than the World Economic Forum global risk report (which is about
> risk *perception*). Note that it is not a list of *existential* risks, but
> just stuff that could mess up the lives for a few billion.
> Still, extreme tail climate change is something worth taking more
> seriously as a risk than our community normally does. Vanilla climate
> change is slow and people tend to overestimate its badness (at least
> compared to other GCRs and xrisks) but there is a tail of extreme
> possibility that is rarely spoken about - extremely uncertain, way outside
> what we know how to model well, potentially making sizeable regions
> uninhabitable. Even the greens rarely bring it up except as a scare story
> to get people to see vanilla climate change as something urgent; once the
> discussion about that starts they tend to focus on vanilla stuff and become
> very uneasy when you start querying them on preparation for saving parts of
> the current biosphere. But if you think it is rational to have some
> preparation for big asteroids, then you should regard it as rational to
> have some preparation for heading off or handling big climate risk.
> --
> Anders Sandberg
> Future of Humanity Institute
> Oxford Martin School
> Oxford University
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