[ExI] Justifiable Lies

John Clark johnkclark at gmail.com
Thu May 12 00:37:56 UTC 2016

On Wed, May 11, 2016  Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote:

>  ### Unless AI-boosted productivity growth bails us out, world's
> governments will be unable to pay their debts in the next 30 - 40 years if
> they continue the present trajectory.

​Then we're in good shape because AI will certainly boost productivity and
nothing continues on the present trajectory for 30 to 40 years.​ That's why
predicting is easy but correctly predicting is hard.

> ​> ​
> Saying that unlimited debt accumulation is not a problem because our
> economies so far didn't have to deal with its effects is like saying that
> having a plastic bag wrapped around your head is safe, because you haven't
> passed out yet.

​Yes exactly. If there were a confirmed case of somebody keeping a plastic
bag on their head since the 1960s and was still doing fine I would have no
alternative but to conclude that physiologist don't understand how the
human body works as well as they thought they did. Doomsayers have been
saying since the 1960s that German Weimar Republic style hyperinflation was
just around the corner, but there is still not the slightest sign of it so
I have no alternative but to conclude that doomsayers don't understand how
the economy works as well as they thought they did.

 John K Clark
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