[ExI] Nuclear probabilities (Was:] Repudiating the national debt)

Anders Sandberg anders at aleph.se
Mon May 16 12:48:52 UTC 2016

On 2016-05-16 12:10, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> If one buys the xrisk model instead, the time spent in peace in this 
> post's model is 88%, crisis 7.9%, and war 3.9% - in this particular 
> case there is actually very little change.

Oops, a tiny error due to using the wrong code: the right numbers should 
be roughly peace 87.6%, crisis 7.99% and war 4.39%.

While the average time to nuclear war is 97.5 years; this corresponds to 
a yearly risk to 1.03% if you fit an exponential distribution to it (a 
fairly decent fit except for the initial few years).

Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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