[ExI] Repudiating the national debt
spike66 at att.net
Tue May 17 20:58:58 UTC 2016
From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan
Sent: Tuesday, May 17, 2016 1:28 PM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: Re: [ExI] Repudiating the national debt
On Tue, May 17, 2016 at 12:57 PM, spike <mailto:spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> From: extropy-chat [mailto:mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan
>>… Ja, this already happened, on 12 Jan 2016: Iran seized two US Navy vessels and crews.
>…That was in the context of those vessels traveling in Iranian waters uninvited, no?
Invited? We have no legitimate official diplomatic relations with Iran, the country which attacked our embassy. We don’t know where those sailors were located when they were captured. The sailors are not being allowed to testify. I heard one skipper has been canned.
>I never watch SOTU in real time…
Nor do I, even later. I read the transcripts. The last one I could stand to endure in real time was Ronald Reagan.
>…what would have happened had Iranian vessels had engine trouble and drifted into US waters…
Engine trouble, hmmm. Dan the BookMan, what kind of engines do you envision those Navy boats as having? Hint: Diesel fuel is much easier to transport and much more forgiving than gasoline. Furthermore, any Diesel motor hit with a terrific EMP would not even notice: they have gravity fed fuel with a hand pump backup, standard aspiration with turbos, etc. That engine has no need for electronics, and would survive any electrical pulse which would take out any gasoline engine.
Were the boats lost? Did their compasses point the wrong way? Did the Iranians have GPS jammers? And did the sailors have no alternate multi-frequency backup navigation while sailing hostile waters? And did two vessels have engine trouble simultaneously?
That engine-trouble flim-flam was a cover story and a contemptuous one at that, more transparent than the yoga routines, the internet video and that echo-chamber business. Our own government is so dismissive of its citizens as to not even bother attempting a believable cover story.
>…What do you think would be likely to happen if the US national debt were repudiated? What are likely good and bad outcomes? Do you think John's sort of meltdown scenario is likely? Dan
Defaulting on the national debt is a bad thing. I am surprised at how many think we have any choice in the matter however. A former presidential candidate pointed out that current government policy would eventually lead to default, but not by choice. That candidate was H. Ross Perot, in 1992. In retrospect, his comments on government spending were right on the money. Al Gore repeated some of it in 2000, but proposed a solution which likely would not have worked. Now, we pretend to be surprised as we see the Federal government debt double in one administration, in peace time.
What a shock!
I see default as coming eventually (15-ish yrs) but not by choice. I also see it as a soft default: Social Security pensioners will continue to get raises, but a fraction of a percent a year, as real inflation is perhaps 10 times that raise. Medicare will pretend to pay, Medicare doctors will pretend to treat. All Federal level subsidies of O-care will dwindle to nothing, not by choice, but because the Fed cannot pay. This will be bad. We will not choose this path willingly. This path was chosen for us, by us, previously.
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