[ExI] Drake Equation Musings

Rafal Smigrodzki rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com
Thu May 19 20:03:50 UTC 2016

On Thu, May 19, 2016 at 7:16 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

Remember the Bostrom and Tegmark paper on doomsday probability? It shows,
> using anthropics, that the probability of vacuum decay is less than one in
> a billion per year. If we had been living in a Shiva unniverse we should
> expect to be very early (since observers exist before the vacuum decay),
> but Earth formed after most other planets in the universe formed and we
> look like we are fairly late compared to when intelligence could have
> emerged.

### You are right, the Shiva explanation does not work without additional
assumptions about how early the first civs could have formed.

> Superluminal? I though all vacuum decay models had it spreading merely at
> lightspeed?
### This is one (of many) things I don't quite get: Inflation was
superluminal and occurred after the false vacuum decay that generated our
spacetime, so you would think the change would propagate superluminally.

Now that I think about it, maybe it went like this: vacuum decay generated
new dimensions and inflation occurred in these new dimensions, not in the
parent universe. Linde's eternal inflation does not blow up the
non-inflating domains, it keeps happening between them.

Well, anyway, even if the change is only at lightspeed, we won't see it

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