[ExI] Statistics question on illegal voting

Will Steinberg steinberg.will at gmail.com
Wed Jan 25 17:53:14 UTC 2017

```Hey y'all, wondering if any stat geeks here know how to approach this
problem.

I think that the fact that Trump claims that the number of people who voted
illegaly is the same as the number he lost by is clearly because he made it
up (I don't even think he thinks it's lying, he just thinks that "I just
thought of it" is a valid piece of evidence--such an ENFJ amirite?)

Anyway I was looking at Bayes' Theorem for the probability that 3-5mm
illegal votes are cast given that Trump loses by 3mm, but I forget what the
deal is with the independent/dependent part and I suck at stats in general.

What method can we use to assay the probability of the number of illegal
votes being very close to the number of votes Trump lost by?  I think a
solid stat claim would go a long way, even though nothing will ever
convince much of the Trumpers of anything Trump tells them not to believe.
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