[ExI] logic puzzle

[Adrian Tymes]

On Wed, Jan 30, 2019 at 9:55 PM deimtee <deimtee at optusnet.com.au> wrote:
> Just to throw a spanner in the works,  given the Bananas won the second
> match, if they won the first match, the only way for the Apples to win
> the series would be to win matches 3, 4 and 5.  The probability of this
> is .5*.5*.5  or 1/8.  The odds that they won the first match is
> therefore 7/8.

Not so much.  We know a priori that the Apples won the series,
therefore if we knew the Bananas won the first and second match, the
odds of the Apples winning each subsequent match is 100% as that is
the only result consistent with the a prioris.