[ExI] Superhuman Poker

Dylan Distasio interzone at gmail.com
Thu Jul 18 18:25:23 UTC 2019

On Thu, Jul 18, 2019 at 2:13 PM John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Thu, Jul 18, 2019 at 12:51 PM Dylan Distasio <interzone at gmail.com>
> wrote:
> >> I'm sure today's self driving cars are not as good as the best human
>>> drivers but they are already better than many human drivers and perhaps
>>> better than average.
>> *> The problem with self driving cars is that they are also brittle.
>> When they fail, they fail spectacularly because they have no common sense
>> or actual conception of what they are doing outside of their brittle
>> model.  That's why we get Teslas ramming into barriers at high speed
>> without even braking killing their passenger(s).  *
> Waymo (Google's self driving car project) has driven 10 million miles on
> public roads since 2009 without a fatality, it has had 14 accidents but all
> of them were minor and only one was Waymo's fault. Granted that is not
> proof of anything as human drivers in the USA produce 1.16 deaths every 100
> miles but it is evocative of things to come because driverless cars get
> better with time but human drivers don't.
Waymo is certainly the cream of the crop in self driving vehicles.  Tesla's
current tech pales in comparison.  I personally think Musk should be
criminally liable for overhyping his "Autopilot" capabilities, especially
at launch, as it has lead to injury and death.

I would point out that those 10 million miles are under carefully
controlled conditions with a human engineer present at all times.  I will
be convinced when we see those numbers with no human being in the car
outside of passengers.   There is a reason Waymo still doesn't operate
without a human engineer present despite their ability to do so in CA from
a legal perspective.


You can also read many recent articles about self driving cars entering the
trough of disillusionment in the Gartner hype cycle.   Nothing that was
promised a few years ago has been achieved.
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