[ExI] stock sales on legal cases

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Tue Mar 12 01:24:45 UTC 2019



From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace
Sent: Monday, March 11, 2019 6:04 PM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: Re: [ExI] stock sales on legal cases


The Predict_It site gives us the opportunity to bet on the outcome of a case, but really what I was hoping for was a way to invest in it, which is similar in a way but distinct.


I was only able to invest a few times, and those times informed me that the word 'distinct' above may not apply.  bill w



Ja it was a poor choice of words.  In Predict_It lets you win up to a factor of 100 if you buy shares at a penny a share, then your longshot pans out, but this other idea I had would keep the sharks fed while they go for the longshot cases.

In retrospect, perhaps this is an example of a really really bad idea.  Reasoning: if one imagines life a coupla hundred years ago, everything mechanical, everything muscle, everybody busy.  Picture a town: this guy is sawing wood, that guy is slaying and carving up a hog, the other guy is plowing, etc, nearly all the women and children working at creating something.  The butcher, baker, candlestick maker, everybody busy doing something that creates some form of wealth with few exceptions.  There is a few ministers, who themselves probably kept busy working on some form of value.

Compare that today.  Plenty of people do nothing to create new wealth.  There is unimaginable quantities of existing wealth.  So… we now have so many whose occupation is mostly redistributing the wealth that already exists.

Over time, the fraction of people who are only redistributing existing wealth increases.  If there was a way to invest in civil cases, we would end up increasing that fraction even faster.  We would feed the lawsuit industry.

OK never mind.  No buttload of money for me, damn.


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