[ExI] Poised for defeat?

[Adrian Tymes]

Before China can win the battle of Taiwan, it must first win the battle of
Hong Kong, which is currently underway.

On Mon, Oct 7, 2019 at 12:04 AM John Grigg via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> "Today, however, such a deployment would no longer elicit the same
> response in a potential adversary. In part, the change reflects the closing
> of the enormous technological advantage the U.S. Navy had enjoyed for
> decades over any realistic rival. New classes of quiet diesel submarines
> and new developments in mine and torpedo technology make operations close
> to tense coastlines far more dangerous today than in the past. As a result,
> U.S. aircraft carriers are no longer immune from risk when entering waters
> within range of enemy forces."
>
> “In today’s Navy, the aircraft carrier has become ‘too big to sink,’”
> wrote Navy Lt. Jeff Vandenengel, a submariner, in a provocative article
> <https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2017/may/too-big-sink> in the
> U.S. Naval Institute’s journal *Proceedings* two years ago. “Yet the Navy
> remains blind to the reality that its carriers—by way of destruction,
> damage, or deterrence from completing their missions—are poised for defeat
> in battle.”
>
> As the technological edge the U.S. has with it's military, continues to
> slip, what should America do to maintain the advantage? If Iran, a second
> or third tier rival, is a problem for us, how do we prepare for a possible
> conflict with a resurgent China? Do we improve the range and stealth
> capacity of our anti-ship missiles? Build more advanced drones for
> destroying enemy aircraft, missiles, aquatic mines and subs? Create a new
> form of stealth tech, should China's "quantum radar" prove to be effective?
> Install laser weapons on all our larger vessels, to stop hordes of incoming
> planes and missiles? Build more destroyers, to lessen the urgent need to
> use our carriers? Deploy massive rail guns for very long range bombardments
> (which could be nice for leveling artificial islands in the South China
> Sea)? Have a 21st century return to the battleship, through this
> technology? Oh, and what about improving private corporate security
> measures, so our research and development efforts are not stolen by China's
> very effective espionage machine?
>
> I have a Russian "frenemy" online, who would mock me by saying the problem
> with the American military industrial complex, is that it throws huge
> amounts of money at various weapons programs, but the private companies who
> take up the contracts, are not fully held accountable. And so after a vast
> budget is spent, they may not have any real solid results, to show for it.
>
>
> China's "president for life," wishes to see his country essentially be the
> world's foremost superpower, by 2049, which will be the 100th anniversary
> of the regime. I suspect by then China will have attempted an invasion of
> Taiwan, which within a decade or two, would be very difficult for the U.S.
> and her allies to resist, due to their arms build-up. The PRC is deploying
> a vast sensor array at the bottom of the ocean, around Taiwan, to detect
> enemy subs. And drone torpedoes would make those waters extremely hostile
> for American and alliance subs and surface ships... China has built bunkers
> on their coastline, armed with literally thousands of anti-ship missiles,
> to overcome the defenses of incoming American carrier task forces.
>
> The PRC understands that unless they have air and sea domination, that
> their vulnerable invasion force of naval transports, crammed with troops
> and tanks, will be slaughtered, causing a huge humiliation to the regime.
> But we would be fighting them in their own frontyard, which gives them a
> huge homefield advantage.
>
> And then their longterm plan (as explained in leaked war college
> documents) is to use a captured Taiwan as a chokehold over the ocean trade
> routes of Japan. Our greatest ally in the region at that point, could be
> brought to their knees by a PRC naval blockade.
>
> I think a takeover of Taiwan, by the PRC is inevitable, but it may be
> decades until it can be achieved. And China may wish to patiently bully
> them into submission, rather than risk so much, by an invasion. But then
> again, a successful invasion of Taiwan would shout to the world that China
> had finally arrived as an undisputed superpower, that even the United
> States, with her allies, could not stop.
>
> What are your thoughts?
>
> https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-with-china/
>
>
> https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/30/the-u-s-navy-isnt-ready-to-take-on-iran/?utm_source=PostUp&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=15284&utm_term=Editor#39;s%20Picks%20OC
>
> John
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