[ExI] COVID-19 has now killed more Americans than Chinese
interzone at gmail.com
Wed Apr 1 17:08:20 UTC 2020
+1. I'll have to check out the 538 piece. I'm shocked they're still
putting out anything of value these days.
On Wed, Apr 1, 2020 at 1:06 PM Darin Sunley via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> This is true. Every piece of data we are given in the media is pure
> garbage, and the academic numbers, even fully qualified, aren't much better,
> Fivethirtyeight ran an [uncharacteristically for them, these days]
> excellent piece on the difficulties in creating a data model for COVID that
> isn't a pure, panic-mongering, stab in the dark.
> Fortunately, there's a lot of media organizations form whom
> panic-mongering is their bread and butter, so we have no shortage of models
> to work with, all of which are terrible.
> The correct response to complete ignorance is a the null hypothesis, not
> the worst-case scenario. But worst-case scenarios get WAY more clicks.. So
> here we are.
> On Wed, Apr 1, 2020 at 10:01 AM John Clark via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>> On Wed, Apr 1, 2020 at 10:06 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>> *> that chart didn’t show why because it wasn’t in per-capita infection
>> Speaking of per-capita, we don't know the true number of people in the
>> USA that are infected because the USA has done far fewer testing per-capita
>> than any other modern industrial nation and started doing them far later,
>> even later and fewer than some third world nations. As a result we're
>> flying blind, all we have is a lower bound.
>> John K Clark
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
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