[ExI] shops opening

[Dylan Distasio]

Spike-

Thanks for posting this, as I had not seen it yet, but for me, it is one
more plank for the hypothesis that I have been working with based strictly
on my own armchair analysis.  We have seen prior evidence that a very large
portion of CV-19 positive carriers are completely asymptomatic (especially
younger, healthy ones).   My working theory is that CV-19 got to the US
earlier than suspected by many, and has spread to way more people than many
suspect in areas like the NYC metro region.

I think it is extremely contagious and aerolizes very easily despite what
we were originally told, and that if we had been encouraged to wear masks
early on (assuming one could find them) that the spread would have been
greatly slowed.  My buddy who is a paramedic who did have very good proper
PPE and followed best practices still ended up with it.  People on the
cruise ship also got it even in quarantine which points to it easily
getting onto food service items from those workers or through the
ventilation system.  I also suspect the real CFR is pretty close to typical
influenza and that the German CFR is not an outlier due to the total
infected counts being WAY under counted.

Based on SARs patterns alone (a very simple model), I suspect this will
have run its course in the US by early June (with some possible flare ups
in localized hot spots).   I also find it highly likely that it will be
seasonal and die off over the summer despite some of the "experts" saying
otherwise.

Since we've already gone down the path of destroying the US economy (which
I was against), I think we should probably keep the NYC metro region in the
status quo through the end of May and then start reopening it in stages as
proposed by the Feds.  I think any states that don't have a big problem
with it should begin that phased reopening TODAY.   I think high risk
groups should continue to avoid going out more than necessary and continue
more extreme measures until better treatment or a vaccine is developed.

There are still a lot of open questions around immunity and the possibility
of recurrence, but for me, this entire exercise has been a HUGE
overreaction.   Sweden may be getting a lot of bad press recently with the
number of deaths, but their curves on active cases look the same as
everyone else's at far less economic cost.

On Fri, Apr 17, 2020 at 1:36 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
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>
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> > *On Behalf Of *Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] shops opening
>
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> >…I would point out donut shops ARE essential services for the boys/gals
> in blue!
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> Well ja, there is that.  Donut shops are perhaps the safest place to hang
> out in the whole city: always constables hanging around.
>
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> Dylan et al, what is your take on this please?  Does it seem plausible?
> If true, it is important:
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> https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/coronavirus-clue-most-cases-aboard-stricken-us-aircraft-carrier-are-symptom-free
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> …The Navy's testing of the entire 4,800-member crew of the aircraft
> carrier - which is about 94 per cent complete - was an extraordinary move...
>
> …Roughly 60 per cent of the over 600 sailors who tested positive so far
> have not shown symptoms of Covid-19, the potentially lethal respiratory
> disease caused by the coronavirus, the Navy says…
>
> We know that some people can carry HIV for decades and never develop
> AIDS.  Others just spin right into the ground almost immediately.
>
>
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> This carrier represents a big enough sample, carefully controlled (they
> have been quarantined together) where they know their medical histories, so
> this might be a really important dataset.
>
>
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________
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