[ExI] shops opening

Mon Apr 20 16:21:36 UTC 2020

Spike-

A timely piece to your point:
The Subways Seeded the Massive Coronavirus Epidemic in New York City
Jeffrey E. Harris
NBER Working Paper No. 27021
Issued in April 2020
NBER Program(s):Health Economics
New York City’s multitentacled subway system was a major disseminator – if
not the principal transmission vehicle – of coronavirus infection during
the initial takeoff of the massive epidemic that became evident throughout
the city during March 2020. The near shutoff of subway ridership in
Manhattan – down by over 90 percent at the end of March – correlates
strongly with the substantial increase in the doubling time of new cases in
this borough. Maps of subway station turnstile entries, superimposed upon
zip code-level maps of reported coronavirus incidence, are strongly
consistent with subway-facilitated disease propagation. Local train lines
appear to have a higher propensity to transmit infection than express
lines. Reciprocal seeding of infection appears to be the best explanation
for the emergence of a single hotspot in Midtown West in Manhattan. Bus
hubs may have served as secondary transmission routes out to the periphery
of the city.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w2702

On Mon, Apr 20, 2020 at 11:57 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> > *On Behalf Of *Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] shops opening
>
>
>
> >…  The numbers, while tragic, are still within the range of a bad flu
> season in the US and growth is slowing…  Dylan
>
>
>
> Hi Dylan,
>
>
>
> The range of numbers should be telling us something important.
>
>
>
> I used to travel to New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Jersey a
> lot for business.  The biggest difference in those states is they all use
> mass transit a lot and their cities are very tightly packed, even more so
> than western US cities generally.  I don’t know about Louisiana, never went
> there on business or for any other reason.  I don’t know why their numbers
> are so high.  Mardi Gras?
>
>
>
> When the quarantine started last month, they wanted people to stay home,
> but public transit continued.  The three states I know about all kept their
> public transit going while packing people into homes.  It could be that the
> strategy is wrong: they shoulda stopped mass transit and encouraged people
> to get out of homes where a new risk is one resident can infect all the
> residents, as we are seeing in nursing homes.
>
>
>
> These numbers are stunning:
>
>
>
>
>
> *Reported cases and deaths*
>
> The figures below are based on data from the Johns Hopkins University
> Center for Systems Science and Engineering
> <https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html>. These numbers are updated every
> 15 minutes but may differ from other sources due to differences in
> reporting times. For up-to-the-minute updates, follow our live coverage
> <https://cnn.com/coronavirus-latest>.
>
> *Cases*
>
> *…per 100K residents*
>
> *Deaths*
>
> *…per 100K residents*
>
> New York
>
> 248,431
>
> 1,277
>
> 18,298
>
> 94
>
> New Jersey
>
> 85,301
>
> 960
>
> 4,362
>
> 49
>
> Massachusetts
>
> 38,077
>
> 552
>
> 1,706
>
> 25
>
> Pennsylvania
>
> 32,991
>
> 258
>
> 1,276
>
> 10
>
> California
>
> 31,531
>
> 80
>
> 1,180
>
> 3
>
> Michigan
>
> 31,424
>
> 315
>
> 2,391
>
> 24
>
> Illinois
>
> 30,357
>
> 240
>
> 1,290
>
> 10
>
> Florida
>
> 26,314
>
> 123
>
> 774
>
> 4
>
> Louisiana
>
> 23,928
>
> 515
>
> 1,296
>
> 28
>
> Texas
>
> 19,411
>
> 67
>
> 500
>
> 2
>
> Georgia
>
> 18,489
>
> 174
>
> 689
>
> 6
>
> Connecticut
>
> 17,962
>
> 504
>
> 1,127
>
> 32
>
> Maryland
>
> 12,847
>
> 212
>
> 461
>
> 8
>
> Washington
>
> 12,025
>
> 158
>
> 634
>
> 8
>
> Ohio
>
> 11,602
>
> 99
>
> 471
>
> 4
>
> Indiana
>
> 11,211
>
> 167
>
> 562
>
> 8
>
> Colorado
>
> 9,730
>
> 169
>
> 420
>
> 7
>
> Virginia
>
> 8,669
>
> 102
>
> 277
>
> 3
>
> Tennessee
>
> 7,070
>
> 104
>
> 148
>
> 2
>
> North Carolina
>
> 6,621
>
> 63
>
> 200
>
> 2
>
> Missouri
>
> 5,807
>
> 95
>
> 199
>
> 3
>
> Arizona
>
> 4,933
>
> 68
>
> 184
>
> 3
>
> Alabama
>
> 4,923
>
> 100
>
> 164
>
> 3
>
> Rhode Island
>
> 4,706
>
> 444
>
> 150
>
> 14
>
> South Carolina
>
> 4,377
>
> 85
>
> 120
>
> 2
>
> Wisconsin
>
> 4,346
>
> 75
>
> 220
>
> 4
>
> Mississippi
>
> 4,274
>
> 144
>
> 159
>
> 5
>
> Nevada
>
> 3,728
>
> 121
>
> 158
>
> 5
>
> Utah
>
> 3,069
>
> 96
>
> 27
>
> < 1
>
> Kentucky
>
> 2,960
>
> 66
>
> 148
>
> 3
>
> District of Columbia
>
> 2,927
>
> 415
>
> 105
>
> 15
>
> Iowa
>
> 2,902
>
> 92
>
> 75
>
> 2
>
> Oklahoma
>
> 2,599
>
> 66
>
> 140
>
> 4
>
> Delaware
>
> 2,538
>
> 261
>
> 67
>
> 7
>
> Minnesota
>
> 2,356
>
> 42
>
> 134
>
> 2
>
> Kansas
>
> 1,948
>
> 67
>
> 95
>
> 3
>
> Oregon
>
> 1,910
>
> 45
>
> 74
>
> 2
>
> Arkansas
>
> 1,853
>
> 61
>
> 41
>
> 1
>
> New Mexico
>
> 1,845
>
> 88
>
> 55
>
> 3
>
> Idaho
>
> 1,672
>
> 94
>
> 44
>
> 2
>
> South Dakota
>
> 1,635
>
> 185
>
> 7
>
> < 1
>
> Nebraska
>
> 1,474
>
> 76
>
> 28
>
> 1
>
> New Hampshire
>
> 1,390
>
> 102
>
> 41
>
> 3
>
> Puerto Rico
>
> 1,252
>
> 39
>
> 63
>
> 2
>
> West Virginia
>
> 890
>
> 50
>
> 20
>
> 1
>
> Maine
>
> 867
>
> 64
>
> 34
>
> 3
>
> Vermont
>
> 813
>
> 130
>
> 38
>
> 6
>
> North Dakota
>
> 585
>
> 77
>
> 9
>
> 1
>
> Hawaii
>
> 580
>
> 41
>
> 10
>
> < 1
>
> Montana
>
> 433
>
> 41
>
> 10
>
> < 1
>
> Alaska
>
> 319
>
> 44
>
> 9
>
> 1
>
> Wyoming
>
> 313
>
> 54
>
> 2
>
> < 1
>
> Guam
>
> 136
>
> 5
>
> US Virgin Islands
>
> 53
>
> 3
>
> Northern Mariana Islands
>
> 14
>
> 2
>
> Repatriations
>
> 152
>
> 0
>
>
>
>
>
> I am assuming all countries have something analogous to US states,
> provinces or some means of distributing political power.  So they should
> have numbers like this somewhere, ja?
>
>
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________
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>
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