[ExI] shops opening

[William Flynn Wallace]

Besides that… I like cars.



spike

 *I can just see Tokyo, London, Shanghai moving from trains and subways to
cars.  Car parking buildings thousands of feet high...........  *


* What is the use of financial analysts going to work in downtown NYC.
Just to sit in front of a PC?  Could all computer work be done from home?
Why not?  *Does anyone know? *bill w*

On Mon, Apr 20, 2020 at 12:33 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
> On Mon, Apr 20, 2020 at 12:45 PM John Clark via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>> On Mon, Apr 20, 2020 at 11:14 AM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat <
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>
>> *> There's a new bug, *
>>>
>>
>> Yes it's new, nobody has seen anything like it before so our knowledge of
>> it is slight. You keep assuming that things are really better than they
>> seem, well maybe so, but maybe things are worse than they seem.
>>
>
> It's not true that we haven't seen anything like it.   It appears to be
> another coronavirus similar to SARS (and thankfully dissimilar to MERS).
> I'm not assuming anything, I'm looking at a number of data points and
> preprints and coming up with my best guess like everyone else.  I'm not
> pulling my hypothesis out of thin air or how I want things to be.
>
>
>>
>>
>>>
>>> *> 1,580 people have died, and their economy for the most part is still
>>> open. *
>>>
>>
>> Yes 1,580 people have died in Sweden, and the population of Sweden is 32
>> times smaller than the population of the USA. And Sweden's death numbers
>> double every 8 days. How long will that rate of doubling continue? Nobody
>> knows because as you say this is a new bug, and in Sweden's case there is
>> the complication that some think extreme cold slows the spread of the virus
>> and Sweden is currently very cold. Summer is coming.
>>
>
> Some people think summer will be good for it dying off.  Australia has
> very few cases of it, yet tons of traffic with Asia and China.  I don't
> believe that Australia has been any more effective at containing it than
> anywhere else, yet their counts remain very low.
>
>
>>
>>
>>> *> What is your end game here, John, if you were running the show?   *
>>>
>>
>> I have no magical end game solution that does not involve a tragic amount
>> of economic pain and human death, all we can do is try to minimize it the
>> best we can.
>>
>
> Don't you think there needs to be a balance between economic pain and
> human death?  How long are you willing to keep the economy shuttered,
> particularly in states with very low current counts (likely due to
> population density).
>
>
>>
>>
>>> *> There is a real possibility that there will not be an effective
>>> vaccine developed for t*his.
>>>
>>
>> I'm not as pessimistic as you are. Given the fact that the virus doesn't
>> mutate much and most people form antibodies and recover I think it's very
>> unlikely that a vaccine can not be found, but if I'm wrong and a prevention
>> or an effective treatment turns out to be as difficult as with cancer then
>> we'd just have to accept a permanent and significant reduction of the human
>> lifespan and of our standard of living. But right now we're a hell of a
>> long way from that point of desperation.
>>
>
> I'm not pessimistic about a vaccine, John, but I'm not optimistic about
> one either.  Coronavirus vaccines are not an easy task even if you assume
> that there is a stable antigenic target.   Prior vaccine attempts have
> resulted in very nasty inflammatory responses in a subset of those
> innoculated.  I would guess that is going to be a challenge here, and you
> won't find me personally going near a CV-19 vaccine for quite some time.  I
> certainly won't be first in line to get one, I can tell you that.   Either
> way though, I hope your optimism is warranted, and we get one, but I think
> economic policy should assume we don't get one, not that we do.
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