[ExI] shops opening

[Dylan Distasio]

Bill-

To answer your question, pretty much all of Wall St work could be done from
home, but you do face the same challenges of interacting with the rest of a
team that any other industry faces.  Even Goldman Sachs is working from
home, and has installed some industry specific devices in people's homes to
make things easier (like trading turrets for example
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trading_turret).  Bloomberg terminals can now
be run from any PC as well, so that is not a limiting factor.

Also, just an aside, but after 9/11, financial firms moved most of their
personnel up to mid-town and never returned.   There are still presences
downtown of course, but Wall St is more of a symbol than a reality these
days.  Even the floor of the NYSE is mostly empty of anything beyond
computers, and very little business had been transacted by floor brokers
even prior to CV-19.

On Mon, Apr 20, 2020 at 2:21 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Besides that… I like cars.
>
>
>
> spike
>
>  *I can just see Tokyo, London, Shanghai moving from trains and subways
> to cars.  Car parking buildings thousands of feet high...........  *
>
>
> * What is the use of financial analysts going to work in downtown NYC.
> Just to sit in front of a PC?  Could all computer work be done from home?
> Why not?  *Does anyone know? *bill w*
>
> On Mon, Apr 20, 2020 at 12:33 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>> On Mon, Apr 20, 2020 at 12:45 PM John Clark via extropy-chat <
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>
>>> On Mon, Apr 20, 2020 at 11:14 AM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat <
>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>>
>>> *> There's a new bug, *
>>>>
>>>
>>> Yes it's new, nobody has seen anything like it before so our knowledge
>>> of it is slight. You keep assuming that things are really better than they
>>> seem, well maybe so, but maybe things are worse than they seem.
>>>
>>
>> It's not true that we haven't seen anything like it.   It appears to be
>> another coronavirus similar to SARS (and thankfully dissimilar to MERS).
>> I'm not assuming anything, I'm looking at a number of data points and
>> preprints and coming up with my best guess like everyone else.  I'm not
>> pulling my hypothesis out of thin air or how I want things to be.
>>
>>
>>>
>>>
>>>>
>>>> *> 1,580 people have died, and their economy for the most part is still
>>>> open. *
>>>>
>>>
>>> Yes 1,580 people have died in Sweden, and the population of Sweden is 32
>>> times smaller than the population of the USA. And Sweden's death numbers
>>> double every 8 days. How long will that rate of doubling continue? Nobody
>>> knows because as you say this is a new bug, and in Sweden's case there is
>>> the complication that some think extreme cold slows the spread of the virus
>>> and Sweden is currently very cold. Summer is coming.
>>>
>>
>> Some people think summer will be good for it dying off.  Australia has
>> very few cases of it, yet tons of traffic with Asia and China.  I don't
>> believe that Australia has been any more effective at containing it than
>> anywhere else, yet their counts remain very low.
>>
>>
>>>
>>>
>>>> *> What is your end game here, John, if you were running the show?   *
>>>>
>>>
>>> I have no magical end game solution that does not involve a tragic
>>> amount of economic pain and human death, all we can do is try to
>>> minimize it the best we can.
>>>
>>
>> Don't you think there needs to be a balance between economic pain and
>> human death?  How long are you willing to keep the economy shuttered,
>> particularly in states with very low current counts (likely due to
>> population density).
>>
>>
>>>
>>>
>>>> *> There is a real possibility that there will not be an effective
>>>> vaccine developed for t*his.
>>>>
>>>
>>> I'm not as pessimistic as you are. Given the fact that the virus doesn't
>>> mutate much and most people form antibodies and recover I think it's very
>>> unlikely that a vaccine can not be found, but if I'm wrong and a prevention
>>> or an effective treatment turns out to be as difficult as with cancer then
>>> we'd just have to accept a permanent and significant reduction of the human
>>> lifespan and of our standard of living. But right now we're a hell of a
>>> long way from that point of desperation.
>>>
>>
>> I'm not pessimistic about a vaccine, John, but I'm not optimistic about
>> one either.  Coronavirus vaccines are not an easy task even if you assume
>> that there is a stable antigenic target.   Prior vaccine attempts have
>> resulted in very nasty inflammatory responses in a subset of those
>> innoculated.  I would guess that is going to be a challenge here, and you
>> won't find me personally going near a CV-19 vaccine for quite some time.  I
>> certainly won't be first in line to get one, I can tell you that.   Either
>> way though, I hope your optimism is warranted, and we get one, but I think
>> economic policy should assume we don't get one, not that we do.
>> _______________________________________________
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>>
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