[ExI] deaths

Rafal Smigrodzki rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com
Wed Apr 29 23:52:05 UTC 2020

On Sun, Apr 19, 2020 at 11:32 AM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> What will be the effect of opening up?  More deaths

### It does not seem that lock-down has a statistically detectable effect
on the total number of deaths. States and countries without lockdowns are
doing better than states with lockdowns. Lockdowns reduce the infectious
agent R0 and thus reduce the incidence rate but the effect is minor. On the
other hand lockdowns increase some other causes of death, for example due
to depression, poverty, stress, and lack of medical care for people with
deadly conditions who fail to to the hospital due to anxiety. The overall
effect of lockdowns on crude all cause mortality is likely to be
undetectable (on top of the Wuhan virus having a small effect on total
mortality to begin with) or possibly even unfavorable.

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