[ExI] next county

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Mon Aug 3 17:37:15 UTC 2020



> On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] next county


>…Spike, is this just a little hobby, or are there serious uses to you for these data?  bill w


Little hobby?  Indeed sir?  We are seeing a case where junky data is being collected, where their own sites clearly tell us the data is junky and uncertain, the data is being handed up to state level sites where the caveats have disappeared, then the states make decisions based on junky data whether children can go to school next week and whether businesses live or die.  This isn’t some little hobby.  This is alarming as hell.


I see a clear mechanism whereby covid deaths can be overcounted (by the site’s clear admission), then I compare new cases per day to the (possibly overcounted) covid death rate a coupla weeks later and notice a huge disconnect between what we are told is the mortality rate advertised and the one we get by dividing the number of cases the sites are calling covid deaths by the number of covid new cases and I am getting numbers around half a percent.


BillW, this is not a hobby, nor is it political.  Big life and death decisions are being made on the basis of junky data which any amateur can see contains a huge anomaly: the covid death rate looks like around half a percent, which isn’t all that different from other flus we have seen before, and yet this time we are closing businesses resulting in their failure.


If nothing else this is vindicating Belgium.  They kept telling us that comparing covid numbers by nation is meaningless because they were being counted differently.  Belgium looks like the hardest-hit nation in the world, or in the top 3.  But kept telling us they were counting suspected cases, people who died with covid as having died of covid, that their data wasn’t directly comparable to other countries.  Now I suspect they were telling the truth all along.


Big decisions are being made based on junky data with a clear anomaly (the mortality rate) and the caveats on the data disappear as it rises.  


Note there is no political content anywhere in any of that breezy commentary.  This is all about data.


BillW, ja, I do have a serious use for this data, for I too make decisions based on it.  I mighta caught covid back in December but I still haven’t tested because I don’t want to go anywhere near that hospital in case it wasn’t that.  MIghta been a different viral pneumonia, in which case I wouldn’t be immune from what I might catch at the hospital.  I had a close extended contact with someone who had recently returned from China when I got sick.


Meanwhile… businesses are dying.  If businesses die, we die.






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